Barclays Bank recently reaffirmed its forecast that the next interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will take place in March 2026, as the US economy enters a phase of "controlled cooling" after a prolonged period of monetary policy tightening. In a report published on January 2nd, Barclays' US economic team suggested that the Fed is likely to implement a total of two interest rate cuts in 2026, each by 25 basis points, in March and June, respectively. According to the bank's assessment, the scenario of delaying interest rate cuts carries more risks than the baseline path they are currently presenting.
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Barclays argues that recent signals from the Fed, particularly the minutes of the December policy meeting, suggest the agency still wants to keep interest rates unchanged in the short term to allow more time to assess the full impact of previous adjustments. This means the January meeting is unlikely to bring about any changes to interest rates, as generally expected by financial markets. Economists emphasize that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) needs more data on inflation, the labor market, and economic growth to determine whether the downward trend in interest rates can be sustained.




