Prediction markets are the least developed, yet the most active, on our platform.

Article Author : 1024EX

Article source: ME

1024EX is a decentralized exchange (www.1024ex.com) built on the first-party public blockchain 1024Chain. Unlike trading applications deployed on general-purpose public blockchains, 1024Chain was designed from the outset around the core needs of AI and quantitative trading. Its consensus mechanism, state update rhythm, and execution model are designed to serve the deterministic and continuous requirements of high-frequency strategies, quantitative high-frequency trading, and complex derivative structures. On this first-party infrastructure, 1024EX adopts a fully on-chain order book architecture and applies this order book model uniformly to spot trading, perpetual contracts, on-chain options, and prediction markets. Based on this, 1024EX is positioned as Everything Exchange—integrating multiple financial markets within the same system, so that the exchange is no longer just a place where transactions occur, but a primary platform for users to enter the financial market, form judgments, and gradually participate in transactions.

On the third day of the closed beta, we already had a clear judgment on the results: the closed beta launch of 1024EX was successful.

Without public promotion or incentives, we collected over 30,000 whitelist applications within three days, generating far more website traffic than expected, as well as a continuous increase in on-chain interaction data. This data clearly demonstrates a genuine and strong market demand for a new form of exchange.

If we only stop here, this would be a typical "internal testing results report".

But when we further analyze the user behavior, the most alarming and explanatory phenomenon emerges.

Prediction markets are the latest, least mature, and most problematic part of our entire exchange system. They haven't even completed a full iteration cycle. In any traditional financial institution or technology company, such products should typically be temporarily hidden rather than pushed to users.

But reality gave a completely opposite answer.

In the first three days of the closed beta, the prediction market became the platform's focus:

• The most visited function module

• The area where you spend the most time

One of the most frequently interacting links on the blockchain

However, it is not Perp or Spot, which are considered "core" in the long term in the crypto.

This is not a "pretty metric" that growth teams are happy to show, but rather a structural signal that needs to be taken seriously.

A counterintuitive fact: the most immature products bear the brunt of user behavior.

If assessed solely from the perspectives of project completeness, stability, or risk control, the forecasting market clearly does not yet meet the criteria to become a "core product."

However, from the perspective of user behavior, it actually serves as a tool for long-neglected functional judgment.

For the past few decades, exchanges have been solving a single technical problem: how to more efficiently match trades, manage risks, and improve liquidity.

Predicting the market solves a problem that occurs much earlier:

How do I view the upcoming birth?

The threshold for this question is far lower than "Should I open a transaction?" and also far lower than "Do I understand complex financial instruments?"

Why is market prediction naturally suited to become a "top-tier product"?

In the internal testing data, we observed two distinct usage paths:

• The trading module's path is linear: Enter, Place Order, Exit.

• The path to predicting the market is cyclical: browse, compare, participate, and come back.

Predicting the market does not require users to immediately bear the risk of price fluctuations; rather, it allows them to express their judgments first and then decide whether to take the risk.

This gives it characteristics that most trading products do not possess:

• Extremely low psychological threshold

• Strong sense of participation

• Natural properties for discussion and dissemination

This is why, when a product is still immature, it becomes the area with the highest concentration of user activity.

A trend that is emerging in the United States but is clearly lagging behind in other markets.

If you look at the US market, you'll see a clear trend emerging, and this trend is occurring simultaneously in both the crypto industry and the traditional financial system.

Within the crypto industry, Coinbase is systematically advancing prediction market-related products, attempting to elevate "opinion trading" from a peripheral feature to an integral part of the exchange's main interface.

But more structural changes are taking place within the traditional financial system.

In the realms of online brokerages and traditional brokerages, some key moves have already clearly emerged:

• Internet brokerage Robinhood has launched forecast contracts, which directly incorporate event outcomes into tradable contract structures.

More importantly, traditional brokerage firms have also begun to take concrete action. For example, Interactive Brokers (IBKR) has launched Forecast Contracts, allowing users to trade around macroeconomic events, policy directions, and key economic data releases.

These products are not standalone "mini-games," but are explicitly embedded into the existing trading and control system, sharing account, guarantee, and risk management logic with assets such as stocks, futures, and options.

In other words, in the US market, prediction markets are not an ancillary function, but are being seen as a natural extension of the exchange and brokerage system.

However, if we turn our attention to regions outside the United States, the gap becomes much more pronounced.

In the non-US market:

• Prediction markets are often broken down into standalone applications, or even operate outside of trading systems.

• This exchange rarely integrates prediction markets with spot and derivatives systematically.

The traditional brokerage system is almost entirely absent from this direction.

As a result, when it comes to "judging the future," American users are doing so through an integrated exchange and brokerage system, while users in other markets can only switch between fragmented and loosely coupled products.

This is not a difference in user demand, but rather a difference in the speed of evolution of transaction infrastructure.

Ultimately, the reason is not complicated:

In the US market, there is still a lack of a business model that can truly integrate "prediction" and "trading".

Predicting the market is not the end goal, but rather the starting point with the lowest barrier to entry.

Based on current observations of actual user behavior, prediction markets have not diverted trading activity; on the contrary, they have taken on the role of the "first stop."

1. Use advanced technology to predict the market.

2. Start browsing and participating frequently.

3. Interest in "using judgment to participate in the market".

4. Gradually transition to more complex transaction structures.

in other words:

Prediction markets are replacing spot trading as the new mainstream.

Why is this something the entire industry should take seriously?

For a long time, competition among exchanges has focused on fees, leverage ratios, and liquidity depth.

But the rise of prediction markets reminds us that the core of competition may be shifting.

In conclusion: A survival adventure that has already begun.

Prediction markets are the least developed, yet the most active, on our platform.

This is not a coincidence, but a clear warning: the way people enter the market is changing, and a significant number of crypto exchage are still using the product logic developed in the previous cycle.

History has repeatedly proven that what gets eliminated by the times is never poor execution, but rather a slow response to structural changes. Coinbase's ability to build an advantage across multiple cycles is not solely due to timing or compliance, but rather because it understood earlier that the most important thing for an exchange is to first and foremost shoulder the responsibility of providing a small "source".

Finally, there is a more serious discussion:

In the next cycle, which sector will become the first stop for users entering the market?

The answer will directly determine which exchanges will remain on the table and which will be quietly swept away by the times.