A series of suspicious betting transactions generated over $630,000 on Polymarket after betting on the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
This activity prompted a swift response from lawmakers in Washington, with a move to ban federal officials from trading on forecast markets.
Lawmakers propose banning officials from participating in the forecasting market.
On January 4, 2024, blockchain analytics firm Lookonchain discovered that three e-wallets had earned a total of $630,484 on Polymarket by betting on the removal of Maduro from office.
Notably, these wallets were created and funded just days before the transactions took place, had no prior transaction history, and focused solely on contracts related to Venezuelan leaders.
According to on-chain data, a wallet named “ 0x31a5 ” staked approximately $34,000 and reaped nearly $410,000 in profit, while another wallet turned $25,000 into $145,600. A third wallet transformed a $5,800 stake into approximately $75,000.
The precision of the transactions—executed just before news spread globally—suggests that these bettors may have had prior knowledge of this sensitive diplomatic and military operation.
Based on this, Lookonchain concludes that the transaction patterns of these wallets indicate a very high probability that they have accessed non-public internal information.
Therefore, this incident prompted an immediate push to close the loopholes in the regulations .
Ritchie Torres is reportedly preparing to introduce the Public Integrity Act in Financial Predictions Markets 2026. This bill would prevent individuals within the government from profiting from outcomes they could influence or foresee.
According to Punchbowl News (and also confirmed by Torres on social media), the bill would impose a very strict ban.
This bill would prohibit elected government officials, political appointees, and federal executive branch employees from buying, selling, or trading betting contracts on platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi .
“This regulation applies to the buying, selling, or trading of forecast market contracts related to government policy, government action, or political outcomes on federal trading platforms,” explains Jake Sherman, founder of Punchbowl News.
The bill aims to expand the same ethical frameworks as the STOCK Act to the decentralized betting economy .
If passed, the bill would prohibit government employees from using critical internal information about federal law enforcement, court rulings, or foreign policy for personal gain.
Essentially, these regulations aim to protect the transparency and fairness of markets based on the input of the majority.
