According to Odaily Odaily, a contract on the prediction market Polymarket regarding whether Jesus Christ will return to Earth in 2025 attracted approximately $3.3 million in investment. Since the event was ultimately ruled "no," participants who bet on it not happening at the April peak received an annualized return of approximately 5.5%, outperforming even the yield on US Treasury bonds during the same period. The report points out that the contract at one point maintained the probability of "return" above 3%, reflecting the pricing characteristics of prediction markets driven by a mix of sentiment, belief, and speculation.
Bloomberg also points out that while such contracts have increased attention to prediction markets, they have also sparked controversy within academia. Some scholars argue that such highly entertaining or symbolic events may diminish the informational value of prediction markets on serious public issues. With the contract relaunching in the 2026 version, the market currently still assigns the event a probability of approximately 2%, reflecting the characteristic of prediction markets continuing to attract speculative capital under the narrative of "low probability, high reward." (Bloomberg)
