María Corina Machado, the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize laureate and Bitcoin supporter, has a 28% chance of leading Venezuela, ranking second in the race to succeed Maduro.
Following the arrest of President Nicolás Maduro in New York on Saturday to face charges of drug trafficking and corruption, Venezuela is entering an uncertain transitional phase with three main candidates vying for leadership. Among them, María Corina Machado – a longtime political activist and strong supporter of Bitcoin – is attracting particular attention from the global financial and technology communities.
According to data from the Kalshi forecasting market, Machado currently ranks second with a 28% chance of becoming Venezuela's leader by the end of 2026, behind only Edmundo González Urrutia of the Unitary Platform coalition with 32%. González is considered the true winner of the May 2025 election but is prevented from taking office by Maduro's United Socialist Party.
Vice President Delcy Eloína Rodríguez, appointed interim president by the Supreme Court, came in third with 27%.
Bitcoin as a "lifeline" in the reform vision.
Machado's key differentiator lies in her progressive economic vision. In a late 2024 exchange with Alex Gladstein, Chief Strategy Officer of the Human Rights Foundation, she publicly advocated for Bitcoin to become a national reserve asset and promoted its adoption as an alternative payment solution.
Machado argues that Venezuelans have found a "lifeline" in Bitcoin amidst the hyperinflation crisis, using it to protect assets and finance their migration journeys. The Venezuelan bolivar has lost more than 99.99% of its purchasing power since Maduro came to power in 2013, causing more than 8 million people to leave the country.
However, Machado's prospects faced a major setback when U.S. President Donald Trump publicly expressed skepticism about her leadership abilities. Trump declared that Machado "lacks both domestic support and respect," causing her odds over Kalshi to drop after she had previously beaten González.
This statement drew criticism from experts such as Liz Rebecca Alarcón, executive director of Project Pulso, who asserted that Machado enjoyed overwhelming support from the Venezuelan people. The situation was further complicated by Trump's declaration that the U.S. would govern Venezuela until a new leadership was established, while Rodríguez – initially cooperative – changed his stance, calling Maduro's arrest an "illegal kidnapping."
If Machado succeeds, Venezuela could witness a dramatic shift toward a free market economy with Bitcoin at Vai center, marking a historic turning point in the adoption of cryptocurrencies at the national level.
