Betting on US airstrikes in Venezuela yielded 1,200% profit... Polymarket insider trading suspected.

Suspicions of insider trading are spreading after confirmation that prediction market betting accounts created just before the US airstrikes on Venezuela saw profits exceeding 1,200%. As connections between President Donald Trump's family and prediction market platforms are also being reexamined, discussions are emerging about improving systems to prevent information asymmetry and conflicts of interest in prediction markets.

According to blockchain analysis firm LookOnChain on the 5th, before Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was arrested in a surprise operation by the US military, new accounts created on the blockchain-based prediction market Polymarket were found to have made large profits by betting on related issues.



A new account created on the 27th of last month placed a massive bet of approximately $32,500 (approximately KRW 46.97 million) immediately after account creation, at a time when the likelihood of US intervention in Venezuela and the ouster of President Maduro was assessed at approximately 6%. A few days later, with President Maduro's actual capture in a US military operation, the bet's value soared to approximately $430,000 (approximately KRW 621.35 million). This represents a return of over 1,200% in less than a week since account creation.

Three new accounts were created just days before the incident and were found to be focused solely on Venezuela-related bets. Their total profits were estimated at approximately $630,000 (approximately 910.35 million won).

The fact that numerous new accounts began betting at similar times and in similar ways has raised concerns both inside and outside the market, suggesting the possibility of prior information being used. The suspicion is that insiders in the political world, with prior access to confidential information about US military operations, may have exploited this information.

As the controversy spreads, the connection between the Trump family and prediction markets is once again drawing attention. Last August, Donald Trump Jr., the president's eldest son, invested tens of millions of dollars in Polymarket through his venture capital firm 1789 Capital, where he is a partner, and joined its advisory board. He also serves as a strategic advisor to Kalsi, another prediction market platform. Polymarket has not made an official statement on the matter.

Accordingly, voices calling for institutional reform are growing louder in the political arena. Democratic Representative Rich Torres is reportedly preparing a bill to restrict prediction market trading by federal officials and political insiders for outcomes directly linked to government policy. This measure reflects concerns that prediction markets could degenerate into a means of speculation exploiting information access gaps.

"Insider trading is not only not prohibited in prediction markets, but is actually encouraged," said Joe Pompliano, head of investment at Pomp Investments. "This is not uncommon in prediction markets," he said. "CEOs of various platforms have publicly argued that insider trading is desirable and should be allowed."

Reporter Kim Jeong-woo