Chainfeeds Summary:
The knock-off season will come, but not on your schedule, but on the schedule of mobility.
Article source:
https://foresightnews.pro/article/detail/93689
Article Author:
Dami-Defi
Opinion:
Dami-Defi: This is a harsh reality test: Bitcoin can rebound strongly, while actual risk appetite may remain unchanged. How? Cash-holding arbitrage trading. Institutions buy spot Bitcoin, short futures, and profit from the basis. This behavior drives up the price of Bitcoin, but there is no intention to buy Altcoin. Funding rates may remain high, open interest may climb, and prices may rise slowly, while Altcoin remain completely unaffected. Healthy leverage looks like: gradually increasing open interest, moderate funding rates, and leading spot trading volume. Bubble leverage looks like: open interest growing faster than price, funding rates > 0.05%/day, and a backlog of liquidation orders on both long and short sides. The basis trap explains why "Bitcoin went up, so Altcoin should follow" often fails. The leverage that drives up Bitcoin is not the liquidity that buys Altcoin. Let's face reality. The structural problems facing Altcoin were not as severe in previous cycles as they are now: 1) Dilution and unlocking selling pressure – continuous supply release. Billions of dollars worth of unlocked tokens enter the market every month. 1) Early investors and teams are selling, creating persistent selling pressure. 2) Fragmentation – There are now thousands of Altcoin. There's no clear "Altcoin index" for institutional buyers, diluting capital. 3) Fragmented Narratives – AI coins, DePIN, meme coins, games, RWA… each sector is vying for attention. In 2017, the "Ethereum killer" narrative was dominant. Now? There are 47 different narratives simultaneously. 4) Lack of Clear Use Cases – Many projects still haven't proven their products fit the market. Speculation is fine, but without real users, tokens struggle to gain traction. 5) Regulatory Uncertainty – Most Altcoin lack regulatory clarity. Institutions can't touch them even if they wanted to. Here's your checklist; you need multiple signals: BTC.D Trend: Confirmed downtrend. ETH/BTC Trend: Higher highs, reclaiming key levels. Stablecoin Supply Growth: New capital is entering the system. Funding Rate + Open Interest: Risk appetite is picking up, but not overheated. Altcoin Breadth: Most Altcoin broke through. Additional Signals (Pro Mode): TOTAL2 vs. BTC: Are Altcoin outperforming Bitcoin in total market capitalization? Perpetual Contract Trading Volume Share: Are traders really trading Altcoin or only mainstream coins? Meme Coin Frenzy Index: A thermometer of retail investor sentiment. When most of these signals turn green, rotation is real.
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