Morning Minute is a daily newsletter written by Tyler Warner. The analysis and opinions expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Decrypt. Subscribe to the Morning Minute on Substack.
GM!
Today’s top news:
Geopolitical conflicts usually send Bitcoin into a tailspin.
Not this time.
Following the pre-dawn U.S. military raid in Caracas and the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, the crypto market saw a swift but short-lived shock.
Bitcoin initially dipped to $89,300, but quickly regained $90,000 and then marched up across the weekend, now officially reclaiming the $93,000 level
It’s now up 6% YTD.
The recovery hasn’t been limited to BTC though.
Ethereum (+7%), XRP (+15%) and Solana (+9%) have each outperformed Bitcoin so far on the year, jumping to $3,180, $2.12 and $135 respectively.
But those gains pale in comparison to what’s happening in the meme coin market in early 2026. PEPE is up 70%, BONK is up 55% and several top memes are up 20%-30%+ so far this year.
It seems the risk appetite is on.
“The only market where there was actual trading during the U.S. military operation was the cryptocurrency market... prices were steady.” - Steve Goldstein
For risk markets, the Maduro capture is a massive event to start 2026—and likely a catalyst.
The U.S. is now directly intervening in the energy infrastructure of a nation with the world’s largest oil reserves.
This likely means a volatile open for crude oil and gold on Monday as markets weigh a “stabilized” Venezuela against international backlash.
But the early response is overwhelmingly a signal to go risk on.
The Trump admin is clearly not afraid of making big moves and moves that put the US in a stronger global position. And there will be big impacts down the line from taking over this amount of oil, rare earth minerals, gold and more.
Inflation is likely impacted. Demand for the US dollar in global trade is likely impacted.
More impacts will trickle out over time.
As for the crypto market, it’s nice to see Bitcoin and crypto majors resilient during such a volatile period. Historically, global headlines like this cause flash crashes at a minimum.
Not this time.
Perhaps a sign of maturity. Perhaps a sign of true exhaustion from sellers, after the brutal Q4 drawdown. Maybe both.
But our near-term outlook just got more bullish—let’s hope those bull vibes continue…
A few Crypto and Web3 headlines that caught my eye:
