The blockchain analytics platform Bubblemaps has denied growing speculation that the Polymarket account linked to Nicolás Maduro's market is connected to a co-founder of World Liberty Financial (WLFI).
The debate intensified after on-chain analyst Andrew 10 GWEI refuted Bubblemaps' assessment, emphasizing that his comments were merely cautious and analytical, not intended as accusations.
Profitable bets on Polymarket raise suspicions of insider trading.
The situation began with events that took place last weekend. On January 3, 2024, US President Donald Trump announced the arrest of the President of Venezuela.
Notably, blockchain analytics firm Lookonchain detected activity on Polymarket from three wallets betting on Maduro leaving office before his arrest. All three wallets were created and funded a few days prior, and placed bets just hours before the information was announced.
"Notably, all three wallets only bet on events related to Venezuela and Maduro, with no history of other bets – this is a clear indication of insider trading," Lookonchain stated.
One wallet, identified as 0x31a5, made a huge profit , turning an initial investment of approximately $32,000 into $400,000 . Researcher Andrew 10 GWEI pointed out unusual patterns in the deposit history of this wallet.
Both wallets that Capital the Polymarket account received funds from Coinbase and then transferred them directly to the platform; there was no other activity.
“I noticed the second wallet (2i7HJJ) was topped up from Coinbase with 252.39 SOL on January 1st at 11:53 PM UTC. I decided to check all Coinbase deposits within the day before the insider wallet withdrew and found a transaction that matched 99%. The wallet BCcTrxcowNeUqhr4yPtAMy5PhhQ5eD8hsjHYmMS8FaV8 (SOL) – from this wallet – had a deposit to Coinbase with the deposit address 252.91 SOL on January 1st at 00:48 AM UTC, which is about 23 hours before the insider wallet withdrew,” Andrew explained .
Analysts also pointed out that one of these wallets owned domain names that bore a striking resemblance to "Steven Charles." This led many to compare it to Steven Witkoff, co-founder of World Liberty Financial.
“I noticed this wallet has several registered ENS domains: SOL and SOL. The initial Capital – ES6SiK66UZcsPevTgfVtKtay4o1vWUepeVvb5kfWnJXF with ENS SOL. Upon further XEM , there was a transaction of up to $11 million with someone whose ENS is Stevencharles.sol (SOL ) Steven Charles – or Steven Charles Witkoff(?), one of the co-founders of World Liberty Finance (WLFI), meaning someone with access to inside information,” the post added.
Finally, Andrew analyzed what happened after the Polymarket bet paid out. The winnings were withdrawn to Coinbase. A few hours later, approximately $170,000 worth of Fartcoin was withdrawn from Coinbase to the wallet “SOL (SOL)”.
Bubblemaps debate the logic of their connections.
The blockchain analytics platform Bubblemaps has refuted this argument , stating that the logic presented is illogical.
“It should stop. The current Polymarket insider analysis has gotten out of control. Some posts claim the Polymarket insider in the Maduro case is connected to a WLFI co-founder. That sounds shocking, but the reasoning is very weak,” the platform commented .
Bubblemaps claims that a one-day gap between transfers is insignificant. Furthermore, they argue that focusing solely on SOL ( Solidarity) flow overlooks the possibility of adding other assets like USDC or ETH.
They also emphasized that the funds could have come from bank transfers or various small deposits, so attributing a connection is unfounded. According to the post,
"Saying that 'an address is 99% identical' is just a clickbait tactic. In reality, there are thousands of wallets operating in this manner."
Andrew 10 GWEI responded in a detailed post. He explained that he was only offering a cautious hypothesis and not directly accusing anyone.
“I used the phrase ‘Possibly someone connected to Steven Charles Witkoff’ – which is clear enough to indicate this is speculation, not an accusation. The wording was careful enough to leave room for doubt, emphasizing the hypothetical nature of the assessment. However, you overlooked that,” the analyst commented .
According to Andrew, the "99% match" he mentioned refers specifically to transactions having the same quantity. He also explained why he focused on SOL instead of stablecoins: He believes that having to switch back and forth between USDC and SOL on USDC would be inefficient for the trader.
He also admitted that the 23-hour gap between the deposit and withdrawal could be entirely coincidental. However, other factors such as the similar SNS name "Steven Charles" or the subsequent transfer of winnings are noteworthy coincidences.
Andrew emphasized that his observations are not evidence, and only Coinbase can verify or deny this connection through KYC data.
