Analysis: Non-farm payrolls and tariff rulings are in direct conflict; Venezuela is merely background noise.

According to ME News, on January 7th (UTC+8), the median forecast from economists indicates that the U.S. economy added 73,000 jobs last month, up from 64,000 in November, while the unemployment rate is expected to fall to 4.5% from 4.6%. The ADP private sector employment report (“mini-nonfarm payrolls”) will be released on Wednesday, two days before the government data, but is generally not considered a reliable leading indicator. Additionally, the U.S. Supreme Court may rule on the legality of Trump’s global tariffs on Friday—the same day as the December nonfarm payrolls report—which could also have some impact on the market. “Trading on interest rates and credit instruments depends on U.S. growth, inflation, and the Fed’s next move,” said Vincent Ahn, portfolio manager at Wisdom Fixed Income Management in Plano, Texas. “This is why events like Friday’s jobs report are far more important to the Treasury market than Venezuela. It only comes into the market's view when events in Venezuela cause sustained oil price volatility, which in turn affects gasoline prices and inflation, and the market isn't seeing that right now.” In other words, “Venezuela has failed to impact the bond market because it hasn't changed the inflation narrative,” Vincent added in an email to MarketWatch. (Source: ME)