Coinbase, the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the United States, has highlighted structural limitations in Bitcoin security and warned that a fundamental shift is needed to prepare for the age of quantum computing. Coinbase analyzed that approximately 33% of all Bitcoin currently in circulation could be vulnerable to hacking if quantum computing technology matures.
Coinbase attributed the core risk to "public key exposure." Bitcoin generates private and public keys based on elliptic curve cryptography (ECDSA). Any address with even one withdrawal is recorded with the public key on the blockchain. If quantum computers reach commercial maturity, private keys can be reverse-engineered from public keys using Shor's algorithm, leaving the Bitcoin stored in that address virtually vulnerable.
It was also noted that this is not currently an immediate threat. The computing power necessary to conduct a practical, large-scale quantum attack has not yet been realized. However, the problem is time. The Bitcoin network, with its architecture prioritizing security and decentralization, requires a long period of time to change consensus. Coinbase believes that responding after the threat becomes apparent is likely to cause chaos throughout the network.
Accordingly, Coinbase has publicly discussed a phased transition to a post-quantum cryptography system. Key scenarios include the introduction of a new signing algorithm resistant to quantum attacks, a protocol upgrade that allows asset transfers to quantum-safe addresses, and a consensus-based protection for long-term unused addresses. This is not simply a technical update; it is a challenge that will challenge the governance and philosophy of the entire Bitcoin community.
This analysis clearly demonstrates the challenges Bitcoin faces in maintaining its status as a long-term, trusted asset, as "digital gold." Quantum computing is still a future technology, but depending on our preparedness, it could either become a future threat or remain a surmountable variable. Coinbase's warning is a warning to the Bitcoin ecosystem: the threat is not yet here, but preparation must begin now.
