Original article | Odaily Odaily( @OdailyChina )
Author｜jk
On January 7, 2026, a seemingly absurd yet consistently reliable intelligence indicator attracted global attention. Social media monitoring showed that pizza orders near the Pentagon surged by 1250% in the past 48 hours, almost double the 700% increase seen on the eve of the Venezuelan military operation. This is the "Pentagon Pizza Index," a remarkable indicator, and its underlying implication is that the United States is brewing a new military operation.
Pizza orders and military intelligence?
The concept of the Pentagon Pizza Index dates back to 1990, when Frank Meeks, the owner of a Domino's Pizza in the Washington area, noticed a peculiar phenomenon: on the night of August 1, 1990, the CIA ordered a record 21 pizzas, and the next day Iraq invaded Kuwait.
Moreover, this pattern repeats itself:
- Prior to the Panama operation in December 1989, orders surged from 30-35 to over 100.
- During the Clinton impeachment hearings in December 1998 and Operation Desert Fox in Iraq, the White House's extra cheese pizza orders increased by 32%.
The logic behind this is very simple: during high-pressure crises, Department of Defense (now the War Department, which Trump renamed) staff often need to work 16-20 hours a day, and pizza is cheap, filling, and easy to deliver, making it the top choice for working overtime.
Today, there are websites that monitor six pizza shops near the Pentagon in real time, including Papa John's and Domino's. These websites are currently displaying insane multipliers, ranging from 150% to 1250%.
What happened before Venezuela took action?
In the early hours of January 3, 2026, the U.S. military launched a raid in Caracas, the capital of Venezuela, and successfully captured President Maduro and his wife. Hours before the operation, the Papa John's pizzeria near the Pentagon was unusually busy.
This wasn't a sudden military operation. The US began a massive military buildup in the Caribbean in August 2025: the USS Iwo Jima amphibious assault ship group arrived in August; the USS Ford carrier strike group arrived in November; totaling approximately 15,000 US military personnel, marking the largest military deployment in the region in generations. As a result, Pentagon staff were working overtime, causing all the nearby pizzerias to follow suit.
A 1250% increase: Who's next target?
New data released Sunday evening showed that activity at Papa John's Pizza, located 2.3 miles from the Pentagon, surged by 476%, while activity at the even closer Extreme Pizza increased by 200%. The 1250% increase from the lowest point to the highest point represents a new all-time high.
The Trump administration has stated that this is part of its "Don-roe Doctrine," a metaphor for a modernized version of the 19th-century Monroe Doctrine, or an advanced version of MAGA. Trump declared on Saturday, "America's dominance in the Western Hemisphere will never be questioned again."
Based on the latest statements from Trump and his senior officials, the following countries and regions may become the next targets:
- Greenland : Trump emphasized that the US needs Greenland to ensure national security. Forecasting markets show that the probability of the US "controlling any part of Greenland" has risen from less than 20% last week to 38%. The Danish government is currently in "full crisis mode."
- Cuba : Secretary of State Rubio warned that the Cuban government is "in big trouble." He pointed out that Maduro's bodyguards are Cuban and that 32 Cuban military officers were killed in operations in Venezuela. Trump stated, "Cuba looks like it's going to collapse."
- Colombia : Trump directly threatened, "Colombia is also very sick, run by a patient who likes to manufacture cocaine and sell it to the United States, and he won't be doing that for much longer." When asked if he was considering military action, Trump replied, "Sounds good."
- Iran : After Trump threatened to "strike hard" against Iran, forecasting markets believe there is a 54% chance that Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei will step down before next year.
How did these countries respond?
Colombian President Petro has adopted a tough stance, reportedly saying in November 2025, "Brother, if you want to put me in jail, see if you can." He recently announced that any commander who prefers the American flag to the Colombian flag will be immediately discharged from the military.
The Cuban government has held two days of national mourning for the 32 officers killed in the Venezuelan operation, and is clearly on high alert for Rubio's warnings.
Memes and Prediction Markets: Already One Step Ahead
When something like this happens, meme markets and prediction markets are always the first to react.
On Polymarket, the market sensitivity to "Trump's 'acquisition' of Greenland before 2027" is very high. The probability in this market has risen from approximately 7% on December 28th to the current 14%, an increase of 7 percentage points , with trading volume exceeding $2.1 million. This surge coincides with the actions taken by Venezuela.
The market probability distribution for the prediction that "the US will strike Cuba before a certain date" is tiered: only 2% before January 31, 8% before March 31, but jumps to 20% before the end of the year. The loss of 32 Cuban officers in the operation in Venezuela could be the trigger for the US action.
The market for “the US will strike Colombia before a certain date” shows a more aggressive probability curve: 3% at the end of January, 7% at the end of March, and 15% at the end of the year.
Meanwhile, related memes have already emerged, such as Pentagon Pizza Watch (PPW); this is a logo featuring a glowing pizza floating above a green Pentagon, decorated with missile elements.
In terms of market performance, PPW saw a 78.20% increase in a week , with a 24-hour trading volume of $114,369 and a market capitalization ranking of 3689.
Here, I highly recommend reading this Odaily article: " When War Is Settled Before the News: How Prediction Markets 'Priced' the Maduro Arrest 6 Days in Advance ."
