Crypto in 2026 is moving toward structural divergence rather than a unified bull cycle, with Bitcoin and a small group of high quality assets capturing most capital and attention.
Stablecoins are becoming core financial infrastructure instead of simple onramps, driven by real world payment adoption, enterprise settlement, and cross border use cases.
Token launches are losing their default status as mature crypto companies increasingly favor IPOs, while high usage applications like prediction markets may evolve into their own blockchains.
At the beginning of 2026, one thing becomes clear. Crypto is no longer moving in a single direction. According to the latest annual outlook from The Block Research, the market is entering a phase of structural divergence. Growth still exists, but it is uneven. Capital, attention, and legitimacy are concentrating rather than spreading.
Instead of a broad bull market, analysts describe a landscape shaped by separation. Bitcoin versus everything else. Stablecoins versus native tokens. Regulated balance sheets versus onchain narratives. In this environment, familiar assumptions start to break. Token issuance loses its automatic appeal. IPOs return as a serious alternative. Even prediction markets begin to look less like applications and more like financial infrastructure that may justify their own blockchains.
The following sections do not present a single forecast. They reflect tension between different views, and that tension itself may be the most accurate signal of what lies ahead.
BITCOIN DOMINANCE AND THE LIMITS OF THE CYCLE THEORY
Despite disagreement on timing and volatility, most analysts converge on one point. Bitcoin remains the center of gravity. Multiple forecasts place its market dominance above 50 percent throughout 2026. Some expect it to rise further as capital rotates away from weaker altcoins and into assets perceived as liquid, regulated, and institutionally accessible.
Several analysts still expect Bitcoin to reach new highs, with targets clustered around the 140,000 dollar range. Others are more cautious. They argue that macro uncertainty, geopolitical risk, and capital discipline will cap upside. Yet even the conservative views assume Bitcoin will outperform most risk assets, including major equity indices.
What stands out is not price optimism but narrative fatigue. The traditional four year cycle theory is openly questioned. ETF flows, corporate treasury strategies, and continuous global trading have changed market structure. Bitcoin no longer moves primarily as a speculative token. It increasingly behaves like a financial instrument embedded in balance sheets and portfolios.
This shift has consequences. As Bitcoin absorbs institutional attention, it leaves less room for mid quality tokens to sustain momentum. The result is a K shaped market. A small group of assets continues to attract capital, while the rest struggle to remain relevant.
STABLECOINS AS THE REAL GROWTH ENGINE
If Bitcoin anchors the market, stablecoins power it. Across the forecasts, stablecoins emerge as the most consistent growth story of 2026. Supply projections range from 400 to 500 billion dollars, with transaction volumes expanding even faster than issuance.
The driver is not speculation. It is usage. Regulated payment institutions are integrating stablecoins into settlement and clearing workflows. Enterprises are experimenting with cross border payroll, supplier payments, and internal treasury flows on stablecoin rails. In emerging markets, stablecoins continue to fill gaps left by fragile banking systems.
This functional adoption changes the hierarchy of assets onchain. Analysts note a gradual shift away from ETH or SOL denominated activity toward USDC denominated flows. In this context, native network tokens face increasing competition from stablecoins that offer lower volatility and clearer utility.
Importantly, not all stablecoins benefit equally. Several analysts expect USDT market share to decline, while USDC strengthens as a neutral settlement asset across fragmented banking and ledger systems. At the same time, regional currencies such as the Singapore dollar or Swiss franc may grow from small bases, reflecting localized demand rather than global dominance.
Stablecoins are no longer an onramp. They are becoming the infrastructure layer itself.
WHY IPOs ARE REPLACING TOKEN LAUNCHES
One of the most striking themes in the forecasts is the return of IPOs as a preferred path for mature crypto companies. Exchanges, custodians, and infrastructure providers are increasingly seen as better suited to public markets than to token issuance.
The logic is straightforward. Token markets have become crowded, volatile, and unforgiving. Large unlocks, weak secondary liquidity, and declining retail participation make it difficult to sustain long term value. In contrast, IPOs offer access to deeper capital pools, clearer governance structures, and regulatory legitimacy.
Analysts point to a growing divide between companies that generate revenue and tokens that rely on narrative. As this gap widens, capital flows toward entities that resemble traditional businesses, even if they operate on crypto rails. Crypto equities benefit from diversification, whether through AI compute, brokerage services, or multi asset trading.
At the same time, digital asset treasuries face pressure. As ETF products improve liquidity and reduce fees, many DAT structures lose their appeal. Analysts expect consolidation, forced liquidations, or strategic pivots, with only the largest players surviving.
The message is not that tokens disappear. It is that token issuance is no longer the default. For many teams, the more rational choice is to delay or avoid launching a token altogether.
PREDICTION MARKETS AND THE RISE OF APPLICATION CHAINS
Among all application level narratives, prediction markets receive the strongest consensus. Analysts repeatedly describe them as the fastest growing crypto applications of 2026. Volume projections suggest multiples of past election cycles, with open interest expanding rapidly around political and macro events.
What changes this time is scale. As prediction markets attract more users and liquidity, their infrastructure demands increase. Several analysts expect leading platforms to explore launching their own blockchains, rather than remaining applications on shared networks.
This move reflects a broader trend. High usage applications begin to internalize their stack. Control over execution, fees, and governance becomes more valuable than composability. For prediction markets, where latency, compliance, and exclusive partnerships matter, a dedicated chain may offer strategic advantages.
However, growth comes with risk. Analysts warn of regulatory scrutiny, especially around insider trading and market manipulation. They also expect a sharp shakeout, with most copycat platforms failing to attract users.
In this sense, prediction markets mirror the broader crypto transition. They are no longer experiments. They are businesses facing real constraints, real competition, and real consequences.
A MARKET THAT NO LONGER MOVES TOGETHER
Taken together, these forecasts point to a market that no longer rises or falls as one. Bitcoin strengthens while many tokens fade. Stablecoins expand quietly while narratives compete for attention. IPOs regain relevance as token launches lose momentum. Applications mature into infrastructure.
This is not a euphoric vision of crypto. It is a disciplined one. Capital becomes selective. Growth becomes uneven. And success depends less on timing the cycle and more on building something that can survive outside it.
Whether these predictions prove accurate will be clear only in hindsight. But the underlying message is already visible. Crypto in 2026 is not about more noise. It is about fewer winners, clearer structures, and harder choices.
〈When IPOs Outrank Tokens and Markets Build Their Own Chains〉這篇文章最早發佈於《CoinRank》。
