ME News 消息，1 月 9 日（UTC+8），据Lookonchain披露，一位曾在$GOAT交易中获利207万美元的交易者近日创建新钱包“captainbigballs”，并在预测市场Polymarket上斥资1.05万美元下注“伊朗政权将在1月31日前倒台”，当时该事件概率仅为14%。链上数据显示，其资金来源正是此前成功获利的钱包地址，引发市场对其信息来源的猜测。（来源：ME）

曾在$GOAT赚逾200万美元交易者下注伊朗政权月底前倒台

According to ME News, on January 9th (UTC+8), Lookonchain disclosed that a trader who previously profited $2.07 million in $GOAT trading recently created a new wallet called &quot;captainbigballs&quot; and placed a $10,500 bet on the prediction market Polymarket that &quot;the Iranian regime will fall before January 31st,&quot; when the probability of this event was only 14%. On-chain data shows that the funds originated from the same wallet address where the trader had previously profited, sparking speculation about the source of the information. (Source: ME)

A trader who once made over $2 million on $GOAT is betting on the Iranian regime's collapse by the end of the month.

Author | Jeff Park (Chief Information Officer, Bitwise)
Compiled by Odaily Odaily(@OdailyChina)
Translator | Dingdang (@XiaMiPP)
Editor's Note: On February 5th, the cryptocurrency market experienced another sharp drop, with over $2.6 billion liquidated in 24 hours. Bitcoin briefly plummeted to $60,000, but the market seems to lack a clear consensus on the causes of this decline. Jeff Park, CIO of Bitwise, offers a new analytical framework from the perspective of options and hedging mechanisms. [...]

The Black Swan Event Was Actually This: The Real Reason for the Recent Bitcoin Crash

Author | Jeff Park (Chief Information Officer, Bitwise)
Compiled by Odaily Odaily(@OdailyChina)
Translator | Dingdang (@XiaMiPP)
Editor's Note: On February 5th, the cryptocurrency market experienced another crash, with over $2.6 billion liquidated in 24 hours. Bitcoin briefly plummeted to $60,000, but the market seems to lack a clear consensus on the causes of this decline. Bitwise CIO Jeff Park offers a new analytical framework from the perspective of options and hedging mechanisms.
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The release of this new regulation marks a historic leap in the attitude of Chinese regulators towards virtual assets, shifting from a "complete ban" to a "combination of restriction and guidance."

Article Author & Source: Guofeng Law Firm On February 6, 2026, the "Notice on Further Preventing and Handling Risks Related to Virtual Currencies" (Yinfa [2026] No. 42, hereinafter referred to as "Document No. 42"), jointly issued by eight ministries led by the People's Bank of China, and the "Regulatory Guidelines on the Issuance of Asset-Backed Securities Tokens Overseas by Domestic Assets" (hereinafter referred to as the "Guidelines") simultaneously issued by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, have triggered significant reactions in the legal and financial circles...