Analysts predict a "crash sell-off" in Bitcoin in November 2025, with consolidation and bottoming out likely in Q1-Q2 of this year.

According to Mars Finance, on January 10th, analyst Biraajmaan Tamuly stated that Bitcoin long-term holders (LTH) experienced the most aggressive sell-off on record in 2025. While the scale of this sell-off caused market turmoil, on-chain data analysis suggests that this pressure may be subsiding, perhaps outlining the next upward cycle for BTC prices. Data shows a significant change in the amount of Bitcoin that had been dormant on-chain for at least two years in 2025. Nearly $300 billion worth of Bitcoin, dormant for over a year, re-entered circulation. The 30-day period from November 15th to December 14th, 2025, saw one of the most dramatic long-term holder sell-offs in over five years. Tamuly explained that since 2019, sharp reductions in the supply from long-term holders have rarely occurred in isolation. They typically appear when Bitcoin's trend is showing signs of fatigue—whether the rally is nearing exhaustion or during a structural transition. Price weakness was evident in October, but the most intense sell-off followed – a record 30-day distribution peak of 1.14 million BTC in November 2025. This sequence suggests a “crash sell-off” rather than orderly profit-taking, marking a cycle reset rather than a continuation of the previous trend. Since December, the LTH supply has stopped declining and is currently hovering around 13.6 million BTC, while Bitcoin's price has entered a sideways trading range. The long-term/short-term holder supply ratio provides further evidence. Whenever this ratio falls to -0.5 or lower, Bitcoin either enters a bottoming phase or rebounds to new highs within weeks. Last December, the ratio fell to around -0.53, followed by narrowing price volatility and stalled momentum, consistent with a cycle reset rather than a trend continuation. The consolidation in the first and second quarters of this year may constitute a bottoming period, with any sustained upward movement more likely to occur afterward, perhaps in the third quarter.