Institutions: Market pricing suggests the Fed may not cut rates in January, but could begin cutting rates as early as June.

According to a research report by Odaily Securities, December's non-farm payroll data was mixed. The US job market as a whole is in a mild downward trend, but the unemployment rate has improved marginally, giving the Federal Reserve more reason to wait and see in January. Combined with the Supreme Court's potential declaration that the IEEPA tariffs are unconstitutional, this may be a short-term positive for US stocks and the US dollar, but a negative for US Treasuries. Data on new jobs, job openings, and hourly wage growth indicate that the US job market remained relatively weak in December, but the marginal decline in the unemployment rate is one of the few bright spots. Looking at interest rate futures and US Treasuries, the market priced in a Fed rate cut in January, with a possible rate cut as early as June. Meanwhile, the Supreme Court's potential declaration that the IEEPA tariffs are unconstitutional means that economic expectations may improve marginally, inflationary pressures may weaken, but the fiscal deficit may worsen. With the Fed in no hurry to cut rates and tariffs easing, US Treasuries face many unfavorable factors in the short term and are likely to remain at high levels. US stocks will benefit from the AI ​​boom and reduced tariff disruptions, especially in sectors affected by tariffs such as consumer staples and industry, which are more resilient. (Jinshi)