Recently, many people have asked me: Why are privacy coins suddenly so popular again? Some coins have even doubled in a day. Is it still worth buying them?
My conclusion so far: this isn't a trend reversal, but rather a temporary opportunity driven by events . If you act correctly, it's an opportunity; if you act incorrectly, you're just taking the fall.
1. Why did Privacy Coin suddenly move?
There is only one core reason: the US government is once again on the verge of shutdown.
This time bomb was actually planted two months ago.
Let's go back to November 12, 2025, when Trump signed a funding package that ended the longest government shutdown in history.
However, many people overlooked a crucial detail: this agreement was only a temporary grant , valid until January 30.
In other words, this agreement will expire soon.
II. Will the United States shut down again on January 30?
Judging from the current progress, another shutdown is not a low-probability event.
Although both parties urgently passed a "small-scale appropriation" this week, it only covers a few key departments, and the government operating funds, which account for the majority, have not yet been agreed upon.
Therefore, when the government shuts down, the market's first reaction is often to privacy-related assets .
3. Why do privacy coins get hyped up every time there's a shutdown?
This is not the first time.
In previous government shutdowns, privacy coins like ZEC and Dash were repeatedly hyped up by investors.
The reason is simple:
- Government shutdown → Regulatory disorder
- The market anticipates a "regulatory window of opportunity".
- Speculative capital prefers to manipulate stocks with a "clear narrative and small market capitalization".
Last time, privacy coins were boosted by nearly 20 times during the shutdown, and then collapsed when the government reopened.
In that round, I treated it as a standard "event-driven market,"short from the high and profiting from the entire decline.
IV. How should we deal with privacy coins this time?
My attitude is very clear: I will not be superstitious, I will not be greedy for battle, and I will not hold any religious beliefs.
ZEC itself has lost its core narrative due to the team's disbandment, and is no longer a good target for long-term hype.
Therefore, funds naturally flowed into Dash . The "doubling in a day" phenomenon you see is essentially speculative capital driving up volatility.
This market situation is most suitable for:
- short-term trading
- Trading fluctuations
- Or wait until emotions run high, then find an opportunity to retaliate.
Even if long, as long as it's driven up again due to the expectation of a shutdown, it will provide another opportunity to short at a high level.
V. Shutdown + CPI: Seemingly a positive factor, but actually quite strange.
After the CPI data was released last night, many people thought it was "good." But what I'm more concerned about is: how accurate is this data?
Since the last government shutdown, due to incomplete data collection, the Department of Labor has directly recorded the increase in housing inflation as 0.
In other words, the CPI has been systematically underestimated since then.
The actual inflation data provided by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has rebounded to around 3.4% , which is nearly 0.7% higher than the official CPI.
Therefore, you will see a very unusual phenomenon: the lower the CPI, the less the market dares to bet on interest rate cuts.
at present:
- The probability of an interest rate cut in January is now close to zero.
- The probability of an interest rate cut in March is only in the single digits.
VI. Danger signals for the market have already appeared.
This recent rebound has excited not only retail investors, but also some large funds that have begun to reduce their positions.
Someone sold 40,000 ETH in a week, and Spoofy, a swing trader holding 70,000 BTC, has also sold nearly $200 million worth of Bitcoin .
What does this mean? They don't see this rebound as a restart of the bull market, but rather as a window for distribution and exiting the market .
I'm personally paying close attention to the BTC resistance around $98,000 . If the price approaches this level, I'll gradually build short positions, at least aiming for a decent pullback.
VII. What truly alarms me is the US stock market.
The correlation between the crypto and the US stock market is now much higher than many people imagine.
Historically, the S&P 500 has almost always experienced a correction of more than 20% when it goes from a major bottom to a point where it has nearly doubled.
If US stocks begin a significant correction, the highly volatile Bitcoin will only experience a sharper drop.
It's almost a certainty that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates at the end of this month.
8. The real big opportunities are not now, but in the next round.
What I'm more concerned about is actually the longer-term cycle.
If the Federal Reserve continues to hold steady for the next few months, and waits until the policy truly shifts and liquidity is released again, it will be a long-term market trend that lasts for several years .
Unlike this round:
- The next round will take place with low interest rates and balance sheet expansion.
- The liquidity environment will be much better than it is now.
- Extremely friendly to Altcoin, especially highly volatile assets.
Infrastructure assets like SOL and BNB, as well as some highly resilient assets with consensus, will be my key areas of focus.
IX. In Conclusion
The current market conditions are not the time to All In, but rather to choose a direction, wait for the turning point, and save up capital .
What truly determines whether you can turn your life around is never a particular market rally, but whether you can hold the right assets at the right time .
The outcome is still uncertain; we could all be dark horses.
In the next phase, let's work hard together again.
The opportunity will be gone in the blink of an eye, everyone gather quickly!
Don't let hesitation delay your chance to make money, and don't get burned by worthless cryptocurrencies. Join Sister Miao and let's ride this bull market together!
Contact me via WeChat: Mixm5688 or QQ: 2234099968
