BitMart's "Crypto Market Observation Bureau" is a brand-new in-depth Chinese interview column launched by BitMart. It invites the most insightful and influential builders, investors, and researchers in the Web3 industry to discuss financial innovation, technological evolution, and long-term trends, leaving behind judgments and experiences that are truly valuable for the industry.
In the crypto industry, most discussions revolve around price fluctuations, narrative shifts, and the next round of opportunities. But what truly determines whether someone can stay at the table long-term is often not a single doubling-up, but rather: when the market doesn't respond, does he still know what he's doing?
This is something that 0xTodd has repeatedly verified over the past eight years.
This episode of "Crypto Market Observation Bureau" features a conversation with 0xTodd , Partner at Nothing Research and Co-founder of Ethereum Staking Pool EBunker.
Host: yuanyuan , VP of Marketing at BitMart
Having transitioned from materials chemistry to the crypto industry in 2017, 0xTodd is both a long-term researcher and a builder who continuously seeks "certainty" in the underlying structure. Rather than engaging in participation driven by emotion, he is more concerned with: what is worth betting on in the long term?
I. Crossover: From the Lab to the "Moment of Bitcoin's Arrival"
Todd's entry into the industry was not gradual, but rather bore the distinct mark of the times.
In 2017, he was preparing to apply for an overseas doctoral program. At the same time, the "EternalBlue" ransomware attack broke out globally, with hackers demanding ransom payments in Bitcoin. While most people focused on the cybersecurity risks themselves, he saw another signal— Bitcoin was entering the mainstream narrative for the first time in a way that highlighted its "real-world uses."
Todd, who had been exposed to Bitcoin as early as 2013, was extremely sensitive to this point. He later mentioned an empirical judgment on several occasions:
Whenever mainstream media begins to seriously discuss "what Bitcoin can be used for," it often signifies the start of a major cycle.
So he withdrew from his PhD application and turned to the crypto industry. In his view, this was not a speculative choice, but a rational decision made after witnessing a completely new financial species begin to enter the mainstream – a shift from a stagnant traditional academic path to a rapidly evolving new field.
II. Taking sides amidst the noise: A structural judgment about Luna
After entering the industry, research and writing quickly became Todd's main trademarks.
From his early days sharing research on Zhihu, to establishing a formal research system at the Jiaban and Exchange Research Institute, and later founding Nothing Research, he has consistently focused on long-term research around core topics such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoins. With his shift to Twitter (X), his research has gained wider visibility and faced more frequent scrutiny.
In 2021, when Luna and UST were at the peak of market sentiment, he chose to stand in almost the most unpopular position—publicly questioning their underlying structure and defining them as a system highly dependent on confidence. For a period of time, this judgment brought him not applause, but continuous attacks and ridicule.
In 2022, the UST crashed. Todd's funds achieved significant net asset value growth during this extreme market condition by short the UST. Although he didn't completely "successfully escape the peak" during the DeFi Summer, this successful judgment validated his repeated emphasis on "making money from knowledge."
"The thrill of proving your knowledge with real money is even better than making money in the ordinary; it's the crazy release of dopamine."
III. Research Methodology: I welcome debate from all over the world.
Unlike many researchers, Todd does not reject debate and even actively encourages "arguing".
He has a habit of inviting people with different viewpoints to offer rebuttals after publishing his research findings. In his view, the real danger is not being opposed, but rather that research conclusions remain self-consistent in a closed environment without ever undergoing external scrutiny.
This habit stems from his early training in materials chemistry:
Every conclusion needs a source, every line of logic needs to be traceable, and every judgment must be able to be reviewed.
This is why he has always been restrained and rigorous in his research—preferring to be slow rather than sacrificing accuracy to attract attention. In an industry with extreme information overload, this "slow thinking" has actually helped him avoid a lot of noise.
In his view, the biggest challenge in the crypto industry is not a lack of information, but rather how to determine which information is trustworthy . The methodologies developed during his academic research phase have become crucial tools for him in filtering information.
IV. Investment Philosophy: A Portfolio That Allows You to "Sleep Soundly"
When discussing asset allocation, Todd suggested a portfolio structure that he currently favors most: Bitcoin + US Treasury bonds .
The logic is not complicated:
Bitcoin : Only one variable needs to be observed—whether major economies are still expanding their monetary systems. As long as the fiat currency system continues to experience inflation, Bitcoin's hedging value as a "non-sovereign, limited-supply asset" will not disappear.
US Treasury bonds : In a high-interest-rate cycle, they lock in long-term returns of around 4%–5%, providing a stable cash flow for the portfolio.
In his view, this forms a complete closed loop:
If money printing continues, Bitcoin benefits; if money printing stops, US Treasury bonds provide stable returns.
"This is a combination that can help people sleep well for a long time."
V. An Underrated Killer Application: Stablecoins
If Bitcoin is the number one killer application in the blockchain field, then in Todd's view, stablecoins are the second, and still undervalued.
After living and working abroad, his understanding of the value of stablecoins became extremely intuitive. The traditional banking system is not as stable as imagined; account restrictions, compliance reviews, and cross-border frictions can occur at any time. Stablecoins, on the other hand, only require a wallet to complete value transfers globally.
On the RWA issue, he also maintained restraint and distinction:
He is cautious about the "full tokenization of securities," believing that traditional finance is already highly mature in these areas; however, he shows clear long-term optimism for stablecoin products pegged to real yield assets, especially US Treasury bonds .
Against this backdrop, he also took note of products such as BitMart's BMRUSD (in partnership with DigiFT). These stablecoins, pegged to real assets and offering predictable returns, are precisely the type more likely to be accepted by the market in the long term under the trend of compliance.
"Once you've used a stablecoin, it's hard to go back to the traditional banking system completely."
A Silicon-Based Perspective on AI: Crypto is Its Natural Solution
Regarding the relationship between AI and encryption, Todd doesn't get caught up in the accumulation of concepts, but rather thinks about it from a structural perspective.
In his view, AI-assisted trading is an almost inevitable trend. As the capabilities of the models continue to improve, the stability and speed of AI at the execution level will eventually surpass those of the vast majority of human traders.
More importantly, there's the issue of collaboration and payment between AIs . When AIs begin to call upon each other's services, purchase computing power, or data, linking them to bank cards is clearly impractical. High-precision, programmable, and permissionless stablecoins become the most natural medium of exchange.
From this perspective, Crypto is not an adjunct narrative to AI, but rather a natural complement to it on an economic level.
When asked if he, as a content creator, felt anxious about being replaced by AI, Todd said that he would prepare in advance and wait for its arrival.
Advice for newcomers, and three predictions for 2026.
For newcomers looking to enter the industry, Todd's advice remains pragmatic and conservative:
Learn the technical skills first, then learn how to trade.
Understanding the technical principles behind Bitcoin, Ethereum, and DeFi is far more important than initially focusing on candlestick charts.
In his assessment of the future, he proposed three main themes:
Crypto finds its place in the AI wave : AI provides productivity, Crypto provides production relations.
Stablecoin applications continue to expand : payments, wealth management, and cross-border settlements will truly enter the public eye.
Compliance brings structural growth : The participation of large financial institutions will drive the industry into a new stage of development.
Slow and deliberate judgment is the key to long-term competitiveness.
Todd doesn't chase the forefront of narrative. He's more like someone who's always moving within the structure: researching, validating, building, and reviewing.
In a highly cyclical industry, the market rewards speed, but those who ultimately remain are often the ones who truly understand the structure and are willing to take responsibility for every word they say .
------
This episode was recorded on December 16, 2025. To listen to the full episode, please search for and subscribe to "Coin Market Observation Bureau" on Xiaoyuzhou , Apple podcasts, and Spotify.
You are also welcome to follow BitMart's Twitter account for more industry insights, market trends, and platform updates.
Risk warning:
The opinions or views expressed in this column represent only the personal views of the guests and do not represent the views of BitMart or its affiliates, nor should they be considered as professional financial investment advice.
Cryptocurrency investment is highly speculative and carries a significant risk of loss. Past performance, hypothetical scenarios, or simulation results are not indicative of future results. The value of cryptocurrencies may fluctuate, and buying, selling, holding, or trading cryptocurrencies may involve significant risks. Before engaging in trading or holding cryptocurrencies, please carefully assess their suitability based on your investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance. BitMart does not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice.
