Binance Research recently released a new report, "Full-Year 2025 & Themes for 2026," which identifies 2026 as a potential year for the crypto market to experience its strongest "liquidity and compliance resonance period" since the 2020–2021 bull market. Despite geopolitical conflicts and market volatility in 2025, the policy environment, institutional participation, and infrastructure development have entered a new phase.
ABMedia has compiled a list of the "Top 10 Trends Traders Must Read" in this report, covering core themes such as macro policies, Bitcoin, L1/L2 ecosystems, DeFi, prediction markets, and AI, providing a forward-looking perspective on the next crypto cycle that may begin in 2026.
I. A triple policy stimulus becomes the biggest catalyst for the bull market: fiscal policy + monetary policy + deregulation lead to a comprehensive bullish trend.
Binance Research defines the core narrative for 2026 as the "three engines of policy":
Fiscal stimulus : The US OBBBA bill is expected to release $100-150 billion in tax refunds and household subsidies in Q1, and businesses will also benefit from investment incentives.
Monetary easing : The Fed restarted "QE-like" operations, combining interest rate cuts with balance sheet expansion, potentially releasing $500-600 billion in liquidity throughout the year.
Deregulation trend : Expectations of loosening restrictions on the financial and capital markets are strengthening, stimulating risk appetite and IPO and M&A activities.
Binance emphasizes that this round of market activity will be driven by "sovereign-grade liquidity + institutional-grade applications," rather than solely by retail FOMO (fear of missing out).
II. The "macro" shift in the crypto market is accelerating, and traders need to fully embrace policy and interest rate sensitivity.
The market trend in 2025 will be dominated by macroeconomic events such as tariff wars, AI rotation, and government shutdowns. Binance's report points out: "Crypto assets have been fully embedded in the traditional financial cycle, and price formation is closely related to US Treasury yields, the strength of the US dollar, and policy signals."
This also means that traders in 2026 must incorporate macroeconomic variables (such as CPI data, government bond yields, and ETF fund flows) into their operational framework and can no longer rely on a single on-chain data to judge market trends.
III. Deepening Financialization of Bitcoin: Off-chain Demand Becomes Mainstream, On-chain Activity Cools Down Relatively
Although BTC reached an all-time high of $126,000 in 2025, on-chain data shows it has transitioned into a "holding" asset:
Listed companies collectively hold over 1.1 million BTC (representing 5.5% of the total supply).
US spot ETFs have attracted over $21.3 billion this year.
Hashrate and mining difficulty have increased by more than 30% annually.
Meanwhile, active addresses and on-chain transaction volume have decreased by about 16% year-on-year, indicating that capital prefers to enter the market through ETFs, custody and institutional channels, and Bitcoin is moving towards becoming a "new gold-type asset".
IV. BTC's market share remains high: Altcoin opportunities await "capital spillover".
BTC's market share remained mostly between 58% and 60% in 2025, a near four-year high. Binance noted, "When macroeconomic uncertainty is high, funds tend to choose assets with high liquidity and clear compliance. BTC is the first choice."
This also means that the start of the counterfeit season depends on the widespread spillover of liquidity and the diffusion of risk appetite.
V. L1 ecosystem competition has entered the "value realization" stage, no longer just about transaction volume.
The report points out that in 2025, many L1 chains, even with active trading, will be unable to convert into stable protocol revenue. The winning projects will possess the following characteristics:
It has a stable user base and a clear purpose (e.g., Solana).
It can be integrated with real-world applications (such as RWA settlement in BNB Chain).
It can still generate revenue despite cost reduction (e.g., Ethereum).
The L1 evaluation logic has shifted from "high TPS" to "recurring cash flow" capability.
VI. Ethereum L2 enters a phase where the strong get stronger: Base and Arbitrum absorb most of the traffic.
In 2025, Ethereum's Layer 2 ecosystem accounted for over 90% of trading volume, but activity and funds were highly concentrated in a few rollups.
After the incentives faded, many mid-to-long-tail L2 activities declined sharply, indicating that 2026 will be a year of structural differentiation for L2: "Keep what is useful, discard what is ineffective."
VII. DeFi Maturation Accelerates: Governance Tokens Viewed as "Cash Flow Blue Chips" for the First Time
In 2025, total revenue from DeFi protocols reached $16.2 billion, approaching the level of traditional banks. Governance tokens began to emerge.
Profit-sharing model
Compliance framework support (e.g., GENIUS Act)
Stablecoins and RWA structure integration
DeFi is moving from "high inflation incentives" to institutional-grade tools with "asset-like and cash flow characteristics".
8. Stablecoin trading volume surpasses Visa: 2026 will see the "interoperability war" begin.
By 2025, the market capitalization of stablecoins will exceed $305 billion, with a daily trading volume of $3.54 trillion, surpassing Visa.
Six new stablecoins (such as BUIDL and RLUSD) have exceeded one billion in market capitalization. The main battleground in 2026 will be the interoperability between blockchains and the efficiency of cross-border payments.
IX. Market forecasting transformation into institutional-level hedging tools
Binance emphasizes that prediction markets are no longer just a game, but have become:
"Institutional-grade hedging tools for elections, policies, and geopolitical events."
Major political events such as the 2026 US presidential election are expected to boost the usage and legitimacy of this type of market.
10. AI × Crypto Real-World Applications: Agentic Commerce as the Biggest Narrative Catalyst
The report mentions an HTTP-native payment mechanism called "402 Payment," which has processed over 100 million payments, more than 90% of which were initiated by AI agents. This enables:
APIs and data sources can be automatically charged.
The unmanned collaborative economy has been initially realized.
AI × On-chain has a business model foundation
This is considered one of the first AI × Crypto applications with scalable commercial viability.
Will 2026 be a year in which the three forces of "liquidity + compliance + application implementation" converge?
Binance Research concludes that the key to the crypto market's trajectory in 2026 lies in whether three factors can materialize simultaneously:
Whether policy stimulus measures are implemented quickly (e.g., OBBBA cash flow).
Are ETFs and sovereign wealth funds continuing to build positions?
Has the AI × Crypto application been successfully commercialized?
If these three trends converge, the market will open a new door to structural growth. For traders, 2026 is not just about speculation, but more likely a watershed moment for capital transformation and institutional upgrading.
This article, "Top 10 Trends for 2026 Revealed | Binance Research: Will Triple Policy Dividends Ignite a New Bull Market in Crypto?", first appeared on ABMedia .
