Original author: KarenZ, Foresight News
Profiteering has evolved into a sophisticated investment strategy. However, in the highly competitive prediction market, not all projects are worth investing time and money in.
In particular, prediction markets, unlike zero-cost testnet tasks, typically require real money betting. Although the amount per bet is controllable, this "paid" barrier directly filters out a large number of script users who want to play for free, and also brings the risk of principal loss to real users.
If you're still struggling to decide which project to bet on in 2026, this article will help you analyze it from three dimensions: reasons for interest, degree of competition (competitive data), and cost-effectiveness of interaction.
But before you charge in, please read this self-defense guide:
- Regulatory risks.
- Do not participate with funds you cannot afford to lose.
- Predictions suggest that the market is susceptible to manipulation, control, and insider trading.
- Participating in predictive market interactions requires you to have a certain ability to judge news hotspots, sports events, or crypto industry dynamics.
- Carefully review the judgment rules, including the source of information in the contract, whether the deadline includes the day, and any wording traps.
- Blindly betting solely to generate interaction points will likely result in the loss of principal. Data from Hubble AI shows that "on Polymarket, the most active retail traders (mid-frequency traders) have the highest win rate across the entire network, but due to capital efficiency and a lack of systematic advantages, their median actual returns are close to zero."
- Hedging strategies can be considered: Avoid one-sided betting in uncertain predictive markets; try cross-platform hedging. Although there are price spreads and slippage, this minimizes the risk of one-sided betting, allowing you to focus on increasing trading volume. It is important to note that no trading strategy can completely eliminate risk; careful evaluation is necessary before implementation.
Polymarket
Why is it worth paying attention to?
- Predicting market leaders;
- It has raised more than $2.2 billion in total, including a $2 billion strategic investment from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange.
- Polymarket Chief Marketing Officer Matthew Modabber previously confirmed the POLY token and airdrop plan in October 2025.
- Polymarket has received CFTC approval to launch in the United States and is returning to the US market.
- There are strong expectations for the token launch and retroactive airdrop in 2026.
How tightly rolled up?
- With a cumulative total of nearly 920,000 traders, the user base is enormous.
- The monthly active users have been above 460,000 for the past three months, indicating stable user engagement.
- In recent weeks, weekly trading volume has been above $1 billion.
- The average number of transactions per active wallet per day increased from less than 10 in December 2025 to a peak of 23 in early January, indicating a surge in transaction activity.
- In terms of average betting amount, 20.69% of users bet less than $10 on average, 30.35% bet between $10 and $50 on average, 23.91% bet between $100 and $500 on average, and 0.24% bet more than $10,000 on average.
Is it worth interacting with?
It's worth participating, but cost control is crucial. As a high-trading project, its potential airdrop size is extremely attractive. However, Polymarket's mature user ecosystem means that many historical traders have already occupied a portion of the retroactive airdrop quota, so new users need to rationally assess the return on investment. In October 2025, Bloomberg reported that Polymarket was in early talks with investors, planning to raise funds at a valuation of $12-15 billion, more than ten times higher than four months prior, indicating a continued increase in the project's perceived value.
Kalshi
Why is it worth paying attention to?
- The company has raised nearly $1.6 billion in total funding. Its most recent Series E funding round took place in December 2025, raising $1 billion out of $11 billion, with Sequoia, a16z, ARK Invest, Y Combinator, and others participating. This represents a doubling of its valuation compared to the $300 million funding round in October 2025.
- It is regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
- Kalshi has not yet officially disclosed any token or airdrop plans. However, based on its recent expansion into the crypto ecosystem, community analysis suggests an airdrop is expected.
How tightly rolled up?
- The cumulative nominal transaction volume reached US$30 billion.
- Since August 2025, the nominal trading volume has been spiraling upward, with the volume in recent weeks ranging between $1.5 billion and $2 billion, showing a steady growth momentum.
- The total number of transactions approached 130 million, placing it among the top in the prediction market sector in terms of transaction activity.
Is it worth interacting with?
Participate with caution; the cost-effectiveness is low. On the one hand, the project lacks a clear timetable for token issuance and airdrops, leading to high uncertainty. On the other hand, Kalshi charges transaction fees, resulting in high costs for manipulating trading volume, and its mature business model has low demand for token incentives, making the probability of an airdrop being implemented relatively limited.
Opinion
Why is it worth paying attention to?
- Opinion is one of the fastest-growing forecasting markets, with a growth rate significantly outpacing most of its competitors.
- Opinion is one of the projects selected for Yzi Labs' Q7 MVB Accelerator Program in 2024.
- Opinion completed a $5 million seed funding round in March 2025, led by Yzi Labs. In December, the Opinion team announced that it had secured tens of millions of dollars in additional funding.
- Opinion launched mainnet in October 2025 and introduced an points system, making airdrops a clear expectation.
How tightly rolled up?
- Since October 2025, Opinion's cumulative notional trading volume has reached $15.3 billion, second only to Polymarket ($44.8 billion) and Kalshi ($30 billion).
- Opinion's current TVL exceeds $140 million.
- The total number of traders exceeds 170,000.
- The number of daily trading users exceeded 40,000 in late December and early January, and has been between 10,000 and 20,000 in the last 10 days.
Is it worth interacting with?
While the volume is relatively small, the airdrop expectation is clear, and it has strong backing from YZi Labs. It's important to note that a weekly trading volume of over $200 is required to consistently earn weekly leaderboard points. Points are weighted across multiple dimensions, including limit order liquidity provision, trading volume, and holding time bonuses; a reasonable interaction strategy is necessary.
Predict.fun
Why is it worth paying attention to?
- Predict.fun was selected for the second quarter of YZi Labs' EASY Residency incubation program in December 2025.
- Predict.fun is a native prediction market for BNB Chain incubated and invested by YZi Labs. Its founder, dingaling, caused controversy due to the failure of boop.fun and the "insider trading" scandal, and was angrily criticized by CZ. However, he later reconciled with CZ, and the negative impact gradually dissipated.
- Predict.fun integrates with the Venus protocol, allowing users to continuously generate returns while waiting for results after placing bets (suitable for certain short-term markets).
- It features a points system and transparent airdrop expectations.
How tightly rolled up?
- The cumulative nominal trading volume reached $320 million, and the projected trading volume is expected to exceed $200 million.
- The cumulative number of transactions reached 478,000, with a cumulative number of 36,000 unique trading users, averaging 13 transactions per user.
- Since mid-December, daily active users have mostly been between 2,000 and 4,000, indicating a relatively small user base.
- The current TVL is approximately US$22.58 million.
Is it worth interacting with?
Low to medium stakes. Compared to Polymarket, where most bettors and institutions are at play, Predict.fun is mostly used by many for interaction purposes. Strategies for accumulating PP points include trading on the platform, providing meaningful liquidity, and holding positions.
Probable
Why is it worth paying attention to?
- Probable was co-incubated by PancakeSwap and YZi Labs, giving it a legitimate background.
- Probable will launch its points program on January 12, 2026, but currently points can only be earned through invitations.
- 0 handling fee.
How tightly rolled up?
- Since December 18, 2025, the cumulative nominal trading volume has reached $560 million, and the projected trading volume is $380 million.
- The cumulative number of users was 12,389. From late December 2025 to early January 2026, the daily active users were between 500 and 1,000. Starting from the beginning of January, the daily active users gradually increased, and on January 14 and 15, the daily active users were both over 4,000.
- The total number of transactions reached 834,357, with an average of 67 transactions per user.
- The average transaction size was $425, and the average total transaction size per user was $3,357.
Is it worth interacting with?
Low roll. Probable launched in mid-December and is currently in its early stages. Note that referrers must first accumulate $100 in trading volume before unlocking and generating an invitation code. Furthermore, as a project incubated by PancakeSwap, its token will most likely launch through PancakeSwap's CAKE.PAD, and may even be directly listed on Binance.
