Source: What Bitcoin Did
Compiled by: Felix, PANews
Recently, Michael Saylor, founder and executive chairman of Strategy, appeared on the What Bitcoin Did podcast and had an in-depth conversation with host Danny Knowles.
In the interview, Saylor pointed out that Bitcoin's true victory lies not in short-term price movements, but in the historic breakthroughs in its fundamentals, from the restoration of insurance and the adoption of fair value accounting principles to the full acceptance by the banking credit system. He also shared Strategy's grand vision of building "digital credit" and responded to external criticisms of DAT. The following is a summary of the key points.
The fundamentals have seen multiple breakthroughs, with institutional adoption being the biggest advancement.
Danny : Bitcoin is 17 years old now, and last year was a bit disappointing for Bitcoin, not what I expected, and for the companies issuing Bitcoin products as well, especially the second half of the year, which was really tough. Do you anticipate this will continue into 2025 ?
Saylor : I don't think it's been a disappointing year. The only disappointing thing is the price at the end of the year. In fact, Bitcoin hit an all-time high in the first week of the last quarter (October). The community's memory is short, and they're mostly talking about what happened in the last five days. In 2024, there were about 30 to 60 companies holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets, and by the end of 2025, that number will reach around 200. So, in my opinion, the fundamentals look pretty good. Bitcoin hit a new high, and 100 more companies added Bitcoin to their balance sheets.
If we list all the events that will happen in 2025, we will find that we have reached the highest level in history.
First, the insurance was reinstated in 2025. When we bought Bitcoin in 2020, the insurance company terminated our policy. We lost our insurance coverage. For four whole years, I had to insure the company. The company once had assets of $20 billion, $30 billion, $40 billion, yet couldn't afford a $40 million insurance policy. This strategy wouldn't have existed if I hadn't insured the company with my personal assets.
We returned to profitability in 2025. We adopted fair value accounting, and now the company is finally making money. We had been facing the issue of corporate alternative minimum tax. Does a publicly traded company holding Bitcoin need to pay unrealized capital gains tax? This issue was resolved in 2025 with positive government guidance. Therefore, we were not impacted by unrealized capital gains tax.
Then, in 2025, Bitcoin was officially recognized by the government as the world's primary and largest digital commodity. Afterward, the price of Bitcoin reached an all-time high. At the beginning of the year, even using a billion dollars worth of Bitcoin as collateral wouldn't secure a loan of five cents. But by the end of the year, most major US banks began issuing loans using IBIT as collateral, with about a quarter of banks announcing plans to begin issuing loans using BTC as collateral. By early 2026, both JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley were discussing buying, selling, and processing Bitcoin.
The Treasury Department has also provided positive guidance on including crypto assets on bank balance sheets. The chairmen of the US CFTC and SEC have both expressed support for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. Furthermore, we have witnessed the commercialization of the Bitcoin derivatives market on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). You've also seen physical creation and redemption mechanisms, allowing you to exchange $1 million worth of Bitcoin for $1 million worth of IBIT, and vice versa. Exchanging $1 million worth of IBIT for $1 million worth of Bitcoin is tax-free.
So, if I list all the essential elements needed for the commercialization, globalization, and institutionalization of assets, then by 2025 , everything you wanted would have been achieved. And you even witnessed an all-time high, just not on the very last day of the year.
Predicting short-term prices is meaningless; the industry is moving in the right direction.
Danny : From a fundamental perspective, all of these factors you mentioned are positive for Bitcoin. I completely agree. However, the current price is lower than last year. I don't know if this is a self-fulfilling prophecy, because people believe the four-year cycle is real, which is why they're selling Bitcoin. I think the four-year cycle is over. What do you think will happen in 2026 ?
Saylor : I think trying to predict the market's movement over 100 days is futile. Like I just said, Bitcoin hit a new high 95 days ago, and you're complaining about Bitcoin's price volatility. Focusing on short-term events is a mistake; the core philosophy of Bitcoin is that you should have a lower time preference.
Looking back at the history of all ideological movements over the past ten thousand years, those considered dedicated to something typically spent ten years working on it. Incidentally, many people in the world have spent ten years on something and still haven't succeeded, only to spend another ten or twenty years before finally succeeding. If your goal is to commercialize Bitcoin, then you shouldn't analyze or evaluate your success at a frequency of 10 weeks or even 10 months. What's the point of assessing price movements in 2026?
If you assess Bitcoin's performance using a four-year moving average, you'll find it exhibits a fairly bullish trend. I believe 2026 will be a significant year for Bitcoin, but you shouldn't try to predict the price 90 or 180 days from now. The industry is moving in the right direction. The network is also moving in the right direction, and the past 90 days have simply been an opportunity for those with foresight to buy more Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is the universal capital of the digital age, and the market for treasury companies is far from saturated.
Danny : I'm also very bullish on Bitcoin's future in 2026. What surprised me a bit in 2025 was the emergence of so many treasury companies. What are your thoughts on companies that still rely on the simple strategy of "sell stocks, buy Bitcoin"?
Saylor : People all over the world can use Bitcoin as part of their investment, but not everyone can own as much as I do. However, I don't doubt anyone buying Bitcoin. Every household and every company can buy Bitcoin. For loss-making companies, holding Bitcoin might improve their balance sheets; for profitable companies, it amplifies returns. Suppose a company loses $10 million annually, holds $100 million worth of Bitcoin on its balance sheet, and generates $30 million in capital gains. The question then becomes, what exactly would you criticize about this company?
Criticizing a company that buys Bitcoin is misguided. The focus of criticism shouldn't be on the purchase of Bitcoin, but rather on their consistent losses. Why not direct criticism at companies that are losing money and don't hold Bitcoin?
Danny : I don't mean to criticize any company, I just doubt whether the market can accommodate more than 200 companies buying Bitcoin.
Saylor : I don't understand why you would say that. It's like saying I'm skeptical about whether the market can accommodate 200 people buying Bitcoin. There are 400 million companies in the world. You think only 10 can buy Bitcoin? Why can't all 400 million companies buy Bitcoin? Don't they do other things? I think you're criticizing a company that makes a rational decision, which is a bit silly. What do you want them to buy instead of Bitcoin? What do you want to promote as an alternative to Bitcoin? A company holding Bitcoin is like a factory holding electricity infrastructure; it's a productivity tool, not just a speculative commodity. Electricity is universal capital that can power any machine; Bitcoin is universal capital in the digital age.
Danny : My concern is that some companies might see this as a money-making opportunity rather than something they really want to develop that's interesting.
Saylor : This is also a common source of frustration for the Bitcoin community: they prefer to fight amongst themselves and criticize those who buy or support Bitcoin in ways different from their own. They spend so much time criticizing other Bitcoin holders and Bitcoin companies, when the truth is, 99% of people who like Bitcoin agree with you, and only 1% disagree.
So instead of criticizing companies that act rationally, we should reflect on ourselves. The issue isn't about companies buying Bitcoin—how many companies can buy it? How big is the market? My real question is, how large can the market currently accommodate these purely financial companies, especially given the offensive nature of the question itself? Here's the problem: you define them as purely financial companies, but they aren't. Danny, what insults me is that you use that terminology to define who I am now, and who I will always be. Your stance truly offends me. Okay. Let me put it another way. How many companies are there on Earth? 400 million. How much space is there on Earth to accommodate companies? 400 million. So why worry about 200?
Danny : Okay, let's skip this topic, because I really don't mean any offense. Many companies have mNAV below 1 right now, and Strategy clearly experienced a similar downturn in 2022. Do you think they can easily achieve a positive P/B ratio again? Or will they continue to face some kind of resistance?
Saylor : I think that's a short-sighted view. Companies exist to create value, so their value should be based on their operations. If I have a company in Japan that can sell credit instruments with a 6% yield, while other credit markets only offer 2%, how much is that company worth? Wouldn't it be the most valuable company in Japan? So my point is that whatever companies do, their value depends on their intrinsic worth. The key is how they do it. We chose to create digital credit.
Do you know how vast the potential of digital credit is? Do you know how many companies issue senior credit? Do you know how many companies issue corporate credit? Do you think we'll saturate the market? Absolutely not. If you create a Bitcoin-backed derivatives business, theoretically you could do far better than traditional derivatives businesses. If you create a Bitcoin-backed exchange, you could do better than a regular exchange, and you could even create an insurance company. How many insurance companies on Earth use Bitcoin as collateral or capital? None. This industry is enormous.
There's another important legal point to point out. If you own an operating company, the value of your equity depends not only on what you're currently doing with your capital, but also on what you might do. Just because I haven't done it doesn't mean I can't.
Strategy is digital credit that leverages dollar reserves to enhance a company's creditworthiness.
Danny : You just said you'd never be interested in becoming a bank, or maybe you probably wouldn't. A lot of people are speculating about your strategic direction. Why not?
Saylor : Because our business can theoretically expand almost infinitely. We have a product called STRC deferred digital credit. What's the perfect product? A publicly traded product with a 10% dividend yield and a V-value of 1 or 2. If we can capture 10% of the Treasury credit market, that's $10 trillion. So the total potential market size for my product is $10 trillion. Who wants it? Everyone wants it. Who wants a bank account that can pay bills? What if it drops to zero?
We believe our business philosophy is simple. Bitcoin is digital capital, and Strategy is digital credit. Furthermore, the reason we don't run a bank is to avoid distractions; we want to create the world's best digital credit product. If you truly have a vision to transform the global monetary system, banking system, and credit markets, then don't get distracted. At the same time, competing with your customers is the most foolish thing to do.
Danny : You've started accumulating dollars and Bitcoin. Is this to become a liquidity pool for cryptocurrencies, or to alleviate some concerns about interest payments when investing in preferred stock?
Saylor : The reason for establishing dollar reserves is to improve the company's creditworthiness and its image in the eyes of credit investors. People who buy credit do so because they believe that Bitcoin and stocks are too volatile.
If you're a stock investor, you want more Bitcoin and higher volatility. But if you're a credit investor, you want the most creditworthy asset. So, how can you improve your company's creditworthiness if you want to become one of the biggest players in the digital lending space? Holding dollar reserves enhances creditworthiness and makes products more attractive.
Related reading:Will Bitcoin's drop to $80,000 break the Strategy model?
