Bull markets aren't promised. More specifically, bull markets aren't promised to continue. That's why I spent 2023, 2024, and 2025 encouraging investors to make the most of the bull market, while it lasted. When the music's playing, you have to dance. Unfortunately, most investors went multiple layers deep into a simple bull thesis... "I'm bullish on Bitcoin, but I'll just buy alts instead". Or... "I'm bullish on Bitcoin, so I'll just buy $MSTR instead". Or... "I'm bullish on MSTR because I'm bullish on BTC, so I'll just buy the leveraged version $MSTX instead." More often than not, we can be our own worst enemy as investors. Instead of aligning with the simple trend, we think that returns are based on complexity and "nicheness". Sure, many alts are up from their 2023/24/25 lows. But the significant majority of you weren't buying those lows. Tough shit. Now, many investors are going to make the opposite mistake. And they're going to do that in one of two ways. 1. They'll quit and leave 2. They'll refuse to accept that the bull is over We're already seeing this left and right. Engagement is way down. Sentiment is off a cliff. There's bull copium everywhere. People are pulling random indicators out of their ass to justify a bullish bias on assets that are in downtrends. Eventually, they'll be right. I saw it in 2022 also. Certain people (I won't say who) were bull posting every single week predicting a bottom, referencing some "proprietary" indicator, only to be invalidated a few days/weeks later. Eventually, their bull posts in November 2022 were proven to be "correct". We're probably just seeing the same thing now. But hey, who knows.... Either way, what we do know is this: Bull markets produce higher highs & higher lows. Bear markets produce lower highs and lower lows. By definition, this means that bear markets have rallies into overhead supply before fading and going on to produce more new lows. Each of those rallies will inspire a cohort of bulls to puff out their chest, suck in a bunch of new capital (exit liquidity), and then trap that capital into the production of more new lows. And that's exactly why bear markets are so hard to survive, particularly for the untrained investors who succumb to emotional turmoil and oscillate between heavy fear and heavy greed. You want to survive hard market conditions? I'll give you a tip. Leave your emotions at the door, as much as possible. We're not robots. The best thing you can do is to actively feel your emotions, understand them, and then try to control them. At the very least, just observe your emotional state. If you allow emotions to control your capital, you won't win. I promise. You must reconcile your emotions against data and against objective analysis. Is your feeling of greed occurring at a structural or dynamic resistance zone (aka overhead supply)? Maybe wait until price breaks above that level in order to confirm your emotional state before acting on it. The best way to go broke during a bear market is to ignore the trend and buy every production of a lower high. I have no intention of going broke. Embrace nuance & good luck.

"Bull markets produce higher highs & higher lows". What's Bitcoin's current high time frame market structure?

Over a multi-year horizon, absolutely an uptrend in fiat terms. Over a multi-month horizon, absolutely a downtrend in fiat terms. Over a multi-year horizon, the trend is quite weak on a relative basis vs. equities. BTC/SPY and BTC/QQQ both under the 2021 highs.

Multi year > multi month It's in an uptrend. You're trying to obfuscate it with other random statements. It's in an uptrend until it's not.

You have your way to identify trend. I have mine. No need to be rude by accusing me of intentionally obfuscating or making random statements. Good luck.

If it breaks the trend it breaks the trend, that's life, but it hasn't yet. That's all.

You don't think that breakdown below the moving average qualifies as a break of an uptrend that existed since Q1'23?

I think that pure price action is the holy grail of price structure. It will be interesting to see if those moving averages end up being more significant. I have been expecting new lows btw, but I'm also I'm optimistic that the uptrend might not break.

Do uptrends make new lows?

Yes, as long as high time frame structure is not broken. You know this anyway. Let's see how we go 🙂

Would you mind answering?

For me, based on pure price with no indicators, the uptrend is valid down to ~74k.

Yeah sure, didn't see that

Got it, so the April 2025 lows are the key line in the sand for you and you'll flip bearish if we lose that level? Fair enough. Like I said earlier, you have your ways of identifying the trend and I have mine, neither of which are necessarily incorrect until we have the benefit of hindsight.

Currently I think that a retest of the April lows would be an opportunity to back up the truck, but I guess it all depends on the reaction, and if we get there at all.

That would also be my first DCA.

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