ChainCatcher reports that Glassnode posted data on social media indicating that the STH-NUPL metric (a measure of the ratio of unrealized profits/losses of new investors to the market capitalization of short-term holders) shows that new investors are consistently in a net unrealized loss position. For this group to return to a net profitable state, a Bitcoin price rebound to above approximately $98,000 appears to be the minimum threshold.
According to ChainCatcher, based on historical patterns of bear markets and significant corrections, a sustained decline in a bear market may cause short-term holders (STH, new investors) to gradually sell their holdings at a loss. During the 2018 bear market, STH-NUPL plummeted to around -0.6, leading to massive losses for short-term traders and ultimately clearing out a large amount of speculative bubble, before the market bottomed out and a new bull market began. In the 2022 bear market (after the FTX crash), STH experienced record-breaking losses; after weak hands were liquidated, the price bottomed out around $16,000 before initiating a bull market.
