🚨 THE $936 BILLION BOMB DROPS THIS YEAR Nearly a TRILLION dollars in commercial real estate loans mature in 2026. These loans were taken out in the mid-2010s at 4-5% interest. Now they refinance at 6.5%+. That's 40-50% higher monthly payments on the same building with the same rent. The math stopped working. Banks kicked the can for two years, hoping rates would drop. They didn't drop enough. Now, instead of spreading pain over three years, it's ALL hitting 2026. The wall got CONCENTRATED. WE'VE SEEN THIS BEFORE 2008 wasn't bad mortgages. It was good properties that couldn't refinance when credit froze. Building cash flows fine. Tenants pay. But loan matures, and there's no affordable way to roll it. Owner injects money, sells at a loss, or defaults. Most can't inject. Banks don't want properties. Defaults accelerate. We're already at 2008 delinquency levels, and the main wave hasn't hit yet. THE TRAP IS CLOSING Banks stopped making new CRE loans. They're offering extensions because they don't want to own buildings. But extensions only work if things improve. They haven't. Occupancy didn't recover. Rents didn't spike. Rates didn't crash. October saw $4B in newly troubled loans. That's BEFORE the maturity crunch. HERE'S WHAT HAPPENS: You own an apartment building. Bought in 2019 with a loan at 4.5%. Payment is $100k monthly. Building generates $150k. You profit $50k. Loan matures in 2026. Bank refinances at 6.5%. New payment $145k. Building still generates $150k. Profit drops to $5k monthly. Property taxes up. Insurance doubled. Maintenance higher. You're now LOSING money on a profitable building. Can't sell, everyone has the same problem. Can't refinance cheaper. Can't raise rents enough. You default. Bank takes it. Sells at 40-50% discount to clear. Multiply that by hundreds of billions across thousands of properties hitting the wall simultaneously. $936B this year. $1.26T in 2027. The loans exist. Maturity dates set. Rate environment exists. Forced refinancing at unworkable rates becomes forced selling at terrible prices. When CRE starts selling at 40-60% discounts, every leveraged owner wonders if they should sell before it gets worse. That's how walls become avalanches.

Wonder how many of those buildings will be worth less than the loans refinancing them?