Wintermute argues that the “four-year cycle”—the familiar frame of reference for the crypto market—is no longer relevant. According to them, 2025 may not see the dramatic surge expected, but it will mark a shift for crypto from a speculative market to an increasingly institutional asset class.
The four-year cycle no longer leads the market.
In the latest market assessment report, Wintermute The assessment is that the four-year cycle model, once considered the "backbone" of the crypto market, has clearly weakened.
According to Wintermute, prices used to move in self-consolidating timeframes.
However, the current period shows that price fluctuations depend more on liquidation and Assets attract investor attention , rather than fixed cycle schedules.
Money is no longer flowing steadily from Bitcoin to altcoins.
Wintermute 's OTC trading data shows that the familiar Capital circulation mechanism has weakened significantly in 2025.
Previously, profits typically flowed in the following order: Bitcoin → Ethereum → Large- Capital altcoins → The rest of the market .
According to Wintermute, this chain of spread has been "broken".
One significant reason is the rise of ETFs and similar products. Digital asset treasuries (DATs) are gradually becoming "closed gardens," creating sustainable demand for large assets, but... It does not automatically reallocate Capital back to the altcoin market .
2025: The year of extreme focus
Wintermute also points to a significant shift of individual investors towards the stock market in 2025.
As a result, new Capital flows are concentrating on Only a few large assets performed well, while the rest of the market weakened.
According to the analysis, altcoin rallies in 2025 will only last a short time. On Medium , about 20 days , a sharp decrease compared to Approximately 60 days of 2024 .
This reflects a high concentration of Capital and a lack of widespread liquidation .
Three scenarios for market expansion in 2026
Wintermute argues that for the market to move beyond key assets, at least... one of three scenarios The following needs to happen in 2026.
1. ETFs and DATs expand investment scope.
The first scenario involves expanding the "investment universe" of ETFs and DATs.
Wintermute emphasized that much of the liquidation is currently "stuck" in institutional channels.
The expansion of these structures into a wider range of assets is XEM as a key condition for a broader market recovery.
ETF records for Solana and XRP This is XEM as an early sign in this direction.
2. Profits from BTC or ETH are reinvested in altcoins.
The second scenario is a sharp rise in Bitcoin or Ethereum creating a wealth-boosting effect, which then spreads to altcoins.
However, Wintermute believes there is still much uncertainty about What is the actual amount of new Capital flowing into the crypto market? in this case.
3. Individual investors are returning to crypto.
The third scenario – and the least likely according to Wintermute – is a shift of personal funds from topics like AI, rare earths, or quantum stocks back into crypto.
If this happens, it could significantly expand the market size thanks to new Capital inflows and increased stablecoin issuance.
The outlook for 2026 depends on liquidation.
According to Wintermute, the outlook for the crypto market in 2026 will depend on: Can liquidation extend beyond a small group of large - cap assets?
This organization emphasizes that understanding where money is going and what structural changes are necessary will determine “what truly works” in the crypto market in the coming period.
Conclude
Wintermute 's assessment suggests that the crypto market is entering a more mature phase, where rigid cycles are gradually giving way to liquidation dynamics and institutional structures.
In this context, 2025 may not be a breakout year, but it will be the starting point for a long-term reshaping of the entire market.
