QCP: Volatility in the Japanese bond market and escalating tariff tensions between the US and Europe have led to a shift in market risk aversion, putting downward pressure on Bitcoin.

According to Mars Finance, on January 21st, QCP, in its latest daily market analysis, pointed out that global market risk appetite cooled significantly over the past week. The impact of the Japanese bond market shock, coupled with geopolitical tensions, drove funds towards defensive positions. US stocks fell by more than 2% at one point, and global bond markets were under pressure in tandem. The report stated that Japan has become the core of current market unease. After a prolonged period of ultra-low interest rates, the yield on Japanese 10-year government bonds rose to approximately 2.29%, a new high since 1999, exposing serious fiscal vulnerabilities. Japan's government debt has exceeded 240% of GDP, with a total debt of approximately 1,342 trillion yen. It is projected that by 2026, debt interest payments will account for about a quarter of fiscal expenditure. The rising yields are triggering widespread questions about the sustainability of Japan's public finances and are having spillover effects on the global bond market. Meanwhile, US-EU relations have become tense again. The Trump administration announced a 10% tariff on eight European countries opposing US control of Greenland, with plans to increase it to 25% on June 1st. The EU has quickly stated that it will take retaliatory measures, and bilateral trade relations face the risk of further escalation. The bilateral trade volume between the US and the EU in 2024 is estimated at $650 billion to $700 billion, and the impact of escalating conflict cannot be ignored. The European Parliament is also considering suspending the US-EU trade agreement reached in July of this year. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin has been under pressure since falling below $90,000. Although it briefly rebounded above $97,000, momentum failed to recover. QCP points out that BTC currently resembles a high-beta risk asset rather than a safe-haven asset, and is highly sensitive to interest rates, geopolitics, and cross-market volatility. Until policy signals become clearer, the crypto market may continue to react passively, with capital shifting towards capital preservation rather than risk betting.