Are whales quietly buying Ethereum as it falls below $3,000?

Ethereum (ETH) price fell to around $2,964 amid a risk-off market, but whales are quietly accumulating heavily around the $3,000 mark, creating an important psychological support level.

US political tensions and tariffs are causing investors to reduce their risk appetite, pulling the total cryptocurrency market Capital back to around $3 trillion. However, on-chain data suggests that ETH supply may be withdrawn from the market through OTC purchases and locked into DeFi, altering the supply-demand balance.

The crypto market is shifting to a "risk-off" mode due to global politics.

Tariffs and geopolitical tensions are causing investors to avoid risk, pulling the cryptocurrency market Capital back to around $3 trillion and turning market sentiment cautious.

The market was clearly impacted by recent tariff decisions by US President Donald Trump, including tensions related to Greenland, which increased demand for less risky assets.

According to data at the time of recording, the total crypto market Capital had fallen to around $3 trillion . Simultaneously, the Fear & Greed Index dropped to 32 , reflecting widespread defensive sentiment.

Against this backdrop, Ethereum also weakened, its price sliding to around $2,964 . However, the price movement may not fully reflect the supply-demand story, as large investors acted in the opposite direction.

Whales are buying around $3,000 despite retail investors selling.

on-chain data shows that large wallets are aggressively buying ETH around $2,900–$3,000, viewing this as an accumulation zone rather than a risk zone.

While selling pressure from retail investors increased due to fear, large investors were observed accumulating at the current price level. According to on-chain data Chia by Lookonchain , many large investors are aggressively buying Ethereum around the $3,000 mark.

The $2,900–$3,000 range is therefore XEM as a “window of opportunity” for accumulation strategies. From a long-term perspective, some investors are beginning to separate Ethereum's Vai as infrastructure from its short-term price volatility.

Trend Research acquired 24,555 ETH using USDT Capital from AAVE.

Trend Research borrowed 70 million USDT on AAVE to buy 24,555 ETH; the total position exceeded 651,000 ETH, creating a psychological "buy wall" effect.

One notable transaction came from Trend Research, described as a large institution. This entity borrowed 70 million USDT from AAVE and used that Capital to purchase 24,555 ETH, worth approximately $75.5 million.

Following the transaction, Trend Research holds over 651,000 ETH, estimated at approximately $1.9 billion. Such a large position size typically provides "psychological support" for the market, as investors tend to view this as a potential buy wall if the price continues to correct.

Buying over-the-counter (OTC) helps reduce selling pressure on the exchange and removes supply from the market.

Buying ETH via OTC (FalconX, Wintermute) doesn't immediately impact the price on the exchange; when ETH is transferred to a private wallet or locked in DeFi, the supply decreases, increasing the likelihood of a "supply shock".

Trend Research is not the only case. Another major investor is recorded as buying 20,000 ETH, worth nearly $59 million, through OTC platforms such as FalconX and Wintermute.

The key difference with OTC is that buy orders don't directly hit the exchange's order book, so they don't create instant price fluctuations like public spot purchases. Then, if this ETH is transferred to a private wallet or locked in DeFi platforms like AAVE, it's virtually withdrawn from the open market supply.

When the supply of goods available for sale decreases, the market becomes more sensitive to surges in demand. In a scenario where demand returns, low supply can cause prices to rebound rapidly, often referred to as a supply shock.

Leverage increases the risk of liquidation if ETH falls to $2,500–$2,600.

Using borrowed Capital to buy ETH could lead to liquidation if the price drops sharply; the $2,500–$2,600 range is cited as a risk threshold for leveraged positions.

The downside of a leveraged accumulation strategy is its dependence on the price remaining above safe thresholds. Trend Research is using borrowed Capital , meaning the position could be under pressure if Ethereum falls significantly.

If ETH falls into the $2,500–$2,600 range, these types of positions could face liquidation. When liquidation occurs, forced selling pressure from large accounts could amplify the decline, creating a sell-off spiral in a downtrending market.

Ethereum network activity surged but was disrupted by "address poisoning".

The number of new addresses increased 2.7 times and weekly transactions reached 17.1 million, but it is estimated that about 80% of the growth was artificial due to address poisoning attacks.

Ethereum's on-chain metrics appear positive, with new addresses increasing 2.7 times and weekly transaction volume reaching a record 17.1 million. However, research suggests that much of this increase does not reflect actual usage demand.

Specifically, approximately 80% of the activity growth is attributed to artificial means, stemming from an increase in "address poisoning" attacks, a form of data manipulation and deception that tricks users into copying wallet addresses.

Therefore, investors need to differentiate between "on- chain busyness" and "real-world usage growth." While the 2026 outlook remains uncertain, signals regarding supply, whale flows, and buyer positioning may indicate that the balance is gradually shifting in favor of bulls.

Conclusion: The price drop reflects fear, while large amounts of money are concentrated on supply and leverage.

ETH is adjusting to fear sentiment, but whale accumulation and OTC buying could reduce selling supply; the main risks lie in leverage and distorted network activity data.

• The current decline in Ethereum reflects cautious sentiment, not necessarily a sign of a "crash," as large investors continue to quietly build their positions.
• Look beyond price and news headlines: monitor sellable supply, leverage levels, and actual network usage (excluding unusual activity like address poisoning).

Frequently Asked Questions

Why has the crypto market Capital dropped to around $3 trillion?

The market shifted to a risk-averse mode due to political and tariff impacts, leading to more cautious capital flows. According to CoinMarketCap data at the time of recording, total market Capital fell to around $3 trillion and the Fear & Greed Index dropped to 32.

What does it mean when whales buy ETH around $2,900–$3,000?

The strong buying activity in this area suggests that a significant number of investors view it as an accumulation zone. When institutions hold large amounts of ETH , the market often forms psychological support, due to expectations of buying pressure to prop up the price if it falls further.

How is buying ETH over-the-counter (OTC) different from buying it on an exchange?

OTC purchases don't immediately impact exchange prices because the transactions occur outside the order book. If the ETH purchased over-the-counter is transferred to private wallets or locked in DeFi, the supply available for sale on the open market decreases, potentially causing a stronger price reaction when demand returns.

What are the leverage risks associated with Trend Research?

Trend Research used borrowed Capital (USDT) to buy ETH, so there is a risk of liquidation if the price falls sharply. The original article stated that the $2,500–$2,600 range is an area that could trigger liquidation; in that case, forced selling pressure could cause the price to fall rapidly.

Why might the Ethereum network activity index look "falsely good"?

Although the number of new addresses increased 2.7 times and weekly transactions reached 17.1 million, research suggests that approximately 80% of the growth came from man-made activity, particularly address poisoning attacks, which distort real-world usage data.