Financial analysis firm Kobeissi Letter has tracked market data from the trade wars waged by US President Trump over the past few years, revealing a precise and recurring " Trump Tariff Playbook ." This negotiation strategy combines psychological warfare, time pressure, and market feedback. For investors, understanding this pattern can help filter out political and market noise and capture more trading opportunities.
Looking at the Greenland and Iran cases: Tariffs become Trump's "economic pressure weapon".
Looking ahead to 2025 and 2026, the Trump administration has demonstrated an " unpredictable " strategy that combines economic and military measures. It has repeatedly imposed tariffs on the Greenland sovereignty dispute and the AI chip war; and on the Iranian issue, the US has repeatedly deployed military facilities and personnel when unrest occurs in Iran.
These actions demonstrate a typical Trumpian strategy: by deliberately creating an atmosphere of "imminent action," he forces his negotiating counterpart to compromise under limited time pressure.
Trump defined tariffs as a "cyclical headwind," deliberately launching them when they were unexpected by the market and withdrawing them quickly after achieving his political goals. This approach breaks with traditional diplomatic methods, aiming to maximize his own profits at the negotiating table by exploiting both market and geopolitical volatility.
(In-depth understanding: TACO trading profit secrets? Polymarket's "Always Bet" strategy yields a 12% return )
A Guide for Investors: Deconstructing Trump's "Tariff Negotiation Script"
According to research by the Kobeissi Letter, a typical tariff action, from initiation to resolution, usually follows a fixed pattern, which is also a key timeline for investors to plan their strategies:
Phase One: Weekend Surprise Attack, Monday's Emotional Impact
Friday's signal: Trump's suggestive and cryptic message caused the market to dip slightly due to uncertainty.
The pressure intensifies on Saturday and Sunday: official announcements of significant new tariffs or policies, and repeated threats over the weekend, amplifying investor anxiety during market closures.
Monday's opening shock: As stock and futures markets open, the market typically experiences a highly emotional initial drop.
Phase Two: Market Digestion, Smart Money Enters the Market
Monday to Tuesday: The government continued to publicly pressure the government, but rational investors began to realize that the tariffs would not take effect immediately.
Wednesday's turning point: bargain hunters enter the market, triggering market volatility and even another wave of decline. This is usually the time when smart money begins to gradually build positions.
Phase Three: Positive Factors Released, Market Reaches New Highs
A week later, over the weekend: Trump changed his tune and released an optimistic message that "negotiations have made progress."
In the following weeks, government officials, including Finance Minister Scott Bessent, appeared in major financial media outlets to reassure the market and emphasize that the agreement was progressing well.
Outcome: Trump announced an agreement, the tariff threat was lifted, and the market hit a record high.
Bond market becomes a red line: How to predict when Trump will press the pause button?
Although Trump adopted a tough stance in negotiations, the Kobeissi Letter points out a key limitation of this strategy: "bond yields."
Historically, the Trump administration has shown a strong focus on bond market liquidity. For example, on " Liberation Day " in April 2025, when the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds breaks through the 4.50% to 4.60% range, Trump typically chooses to withdraw or suspend tariff threats.
This is because excessively high financing costs would offset the negotiating benefits of tariffs and even threaten the economic stability of the United States.
Returning to Greenland and the tariff issue: What's the current situation?
Back to the present, with President Trump announcing the cancellation of the 10% tariffs imposed on the EU and reaching a preliminary agreement on the Greenland issue, all three major US stock indexes rebounded last night. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped nearly 600 points (1.21%), the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both rose by about 1.2%, and gold and silver prices fell slightly in the short term.
It's not hard to see that we're currently around the "turning point of Wednesday in the second phase" of the tariff scenario, with optimism temporarily returning and the market still awaiting more concrete results from the talks between Trump and the leaders of relevant countries.
Volatility is opportunity: "Systematic investing" lets Trump take you to new heights.
In summary, Trump's core negotiating strategy revolves around "time pressure." He provides a two- to three-week buffer period, allowing his negotiating counterparts to feel the threat of a market crash, thereby securing an agreement. For investors, the most dangerous action was to follow the panic and sell off during Monday's sell-off.
The Kobeissi Letter emphasizes that only investors who can remain objective and follow systematic investing principles , rather than being driven by emotions, can reap the rewards. In other words, Trump's political maneuvering, in every instance, brings market volatility and provides investors with a golden opportunity to reallocate assets and capture excess returns.
This article dissects Trump's tariff negotiation strategy step by step: How can investors profit from it? It first appeared on ABMedia .
