Many people are still wondering whether the pullback is over, but to be honest, the structure has already given the answer .
In conclusion: The 98,000 level was a false breakout; a trend reversal has already occurred, and this rebound is more like a "dead cat bounce."
First, the trend signal has turned bearish; stop comforting yourself.
From a daily chart perspective, Bitcoin's MACD has formed a new death cross , meaning the previous golden cross rebound has been completely negated. Historically, once a death cross is established on the daily chart, a further downward trend usually follows until a golden cross occurs again, indicating true stabilization.
Of course, indicators are not 100% accurate. For example, at the end of last year, there was a rebound after the death cross, and even a double bottom, but as we all know, the final result was still a sharp drop to over 70,000 .
Therefore, I always emphasize one point: a trend is a trend, and events can only create fluctuations, but cannot change the direction.
Second, the 98,000 level was a false breakout; the major players have already exited the market.
From the candlestick chart, the breakout above 98,000 was clearly a false breakout, and the price quickly fell back below the original resistance zone. More importantly— we're not buying into the micro-strategy .
The previous market rally was driven by "government spending combined with a compelling narrative." But now the situation has completely changed:
- MicroStrategy's stock price has fallen more than 70% from its peak, essentially losing its ability to raise further funds.
- Other treasury companies began selling coins, going bankrupt, and liquidating their holdings.
- Long-term buying by major players has clearly cooled down.
What does this mean? The market no longer believes in the "perpetual bull market" narrative.
Therefore, the rebound we are seeing now is essentially more like a technical pullback within a downtrend .
Third, the market will focus on only one thing going forward: the interest rate meeting on January 29th.
Bitcoin itself has little "performance," and its price fluctuations are highly dependent on macroeconomic expectations. The biggest negative factor at present is the Federal Reserve's clear stance of not cutting interest rates .
The logic is actually very simple:
- Previously, the pattern was: interest rate cut expectations → pre-meeting rally → daytime sell-off after positive news materialized.
- The current situation is: Confirmation of no interest rate cut → Pre-meeting weakness → Post-meeting rebound after all negative news has been priced in.
Therefore, my personal strategy is to hold short positions until at least around January 29th.
If extreme sentiment and a rapid decline occur near the meeting, it presents an opportunity for short-term long positions to capitalize on a rebound (hold for about a week).
I've actually mentioned this rhythm many times before.
IV. Where might support levels emerge in the short term?
If you prefer swing trading rather than blindly sticking to a particular direction, you can focus on two consensus zones:
- Around 87,500
- Previous low around 81,000
These two positions have a high concentration of short positions, and a rebound is likely to occur once they are touched. However, please note: 👉This is a "rebound position," not a trend reversal position.
For a truly large-scale long, I will still wait for one of two signals:
- The daily MACD has formed a golden cross again.
- Or there is a substantial improvement in macroeconomic expectations.
V. The true bottom may not be reached until June.
From a time cycle perspective, I am rather cautious about the first half of this year.
There is only one reason: it is highly unlikely that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates from January to June.
The probability of a drop even in June is only about 40%. And a rise without liquidity injection is difficult to sustain in the long run.
Adding another point: US stocks have risen 60% in six months without experiencing a significant correction. And every time US stocks experience a deep correction, Bitcoin is inevitably affected .
Therefore, my judgment is: 👉 In the first half of this year, it is very likely that a major bottom will emerge under the combined effect of "no interest rate cuts + US stock market correction".
I will definitely wait for this opportunity.
6. Besides BTC, what else will I be focusing on?
If a major bottom truly appears, I won't just buy Bitcoin:
- SOL : High volatility, sharp drops, and also strong rebounds.
- BNB : Relatively stable, suitable for medium-term investment.
But there's only one premise: wait for the trend to give you a signal, rather than letting emotions give you courage.
VII. There is another key variable tonight: PCE.
Tonight at 11 PM, the Federal Reserve will release its most important inflation indicator – the PCE .
The last time the CPI was positive, it directly pushed BTC to 98,000. But there's one thing to note:
- The CPI comes from the Department of Labor and therefore has room for "embellishment".
- PCE data comes from the Ministry of Commerce and is therefore relatively more objective.
Therefore, the volatility tonight is likely to be significant, but the direction still needs to be considered in conjunction with the trend.
In conclusion, now is not the time to fantasize about a bull market, but rather to respect the trend, preserve your capital, and wait for truly significant opportunities . The market will give you opportunities, but only to those with patience.
The opportunity will be gone in the blink of an eye, everyone gather quickly!
Don't let hesitation delay your best chance to make money, and don't get burned by worthless cryptocurrencies. Follow Sister Miao and get through this safely!
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