This round of market volatility is not due to a structural deterioration in the fundamentals of crypto assets, but rather more like a phase of repricing under external macroeconomic disturbances. Trump's latest round of tariff threats should be viewed less as traditional trade policy and more as a strategy to create market volatility and strengthen negotiating leverage. The market has gradually adapted to this rhythm: news shocks first trigger price repricing, and selling is amplified when liquidity tightens; once negotiation signals are released, prices tend to stabilize quickly, and trading returns to a relatively orderly state.
In this process, Bitcoin's correlation with global liquidity has continued to strengthen, gradually playing the role of a high-beta proxy for global liquidity rather than a traditional macro hedging tool. The current price pullback is more of a trading-level adjustment than a trend reversal.
Tariff strategies reshape volatility: Bitcoin becomes a forward-responding asset to macroeconomic shocks.
Trump's trade strategy during his second term has evolved into a clear "two-step escalation" mechanism: first announcing initial tariff arrangements, then setting subsequent tiers of higher tariffs. This design creates immediate liquidity shocks while also providing the market with a clear time anchor. Related statements often bypass traditional diplomatic channels and are concentrated on weekends, allowing Bitcoin to absorb macroeconomic shocks first during traditional market closures, becoming a highly liquid risk pricing vehicle.
Judging from market reactions, Bitcoin's volatility tends to be relatively restrained over the weekend, while selling pressure only intensifies significantly after US stock futures resume trading. This suggests that the current price adjustment is not primarily driven by retail investor sentiment, but rather by traditional financial participants rebalancing their cross-asset risk exposure following the return of liquidity. As long as the market continues to react to this pattern of "maximum pressure – tactical cooling," Bitcoin will remain at the forefront of macroeconomic disturbances.
Volatility Does Not Equal Reversal: Repeatable Trading Windows in Tactical Pullbacks
Since 2025, Bitcoin's market narrative has undergone a significant shift—from an "inflation hedge" to a high-beta indicator highly sensitive to changes in global liquidity. Tariff-related statements often trigger a 3%–7% pullback, not due to deteriorating fundamentals, but rather as a result of institutional trading desks actively deleveraging and reducing risk exposure against the backdrop of a strengthening dollar and rising stagflation expectations.
Within this framework, tariffs are the means, and volatility is the goal. This volatility, in turn, creates repeatable trading windows: the shock phase intensifies negotiating pressure, while the period before the event subsides and risk appetite recovers often corresponds to a relatively favorable entry point. Meanwhile, implied volatility has not risen significantly, suggesting that the market does not perceive it as an escalation of structural risk.
Overall, this round of Bitcoin pullback is more tactical than a trend reversal. As the market gradually sees through this negotiation rhythm and incorporates its impact into pricing, Bitcoin's weight as the primary pricing vehicle for related statements may marginally decrease. Given the overall resilience of risk assets, the necessity for continued concern is limited. For investors, rather than over-interpreting short-term headlines, it's better to focus on changes in pricing and liquidity structures—within a disciplined framework, the value of buying on dips still outweighs concerns about a "structural shift."
The above viewpoints are from Matrix on Target. Contact us to obtain the full Matrix on Target report.
Disclaimer: Investing in the market involves risks; please exercise caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading can be extremely risky and volatile. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of your individual circumstances and consultation with a financial professional. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.
