Five institutions forecast the Fed's interest rate cut pace in 2026

According to Mars Finance, on January 28th, five major institutions, including JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup, released their forecasts for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in 2026 and the key points of tonight's interest rate decision, as follows: Barclays' rate cut forecast: A total of 50 basis points (June and December). Viewpoint: The FOMC is expected to signal that it is not in a hurry to cut rates further. The committee may point out that the downside risks to employment and the upside risks to inflation have reached a balance. Powell's statement: He is expected to reinforce the FOMC's stance of not being in a hurry to cut rates. Bank of America's rate cut forecast: A total of 50 basis points (June and July). Viewpoint: Political factors may become the focus of the January meeting. The Fed will firmly maintain the status quo, and the risk balance is not expected to change. Powell's statement: The press conference may revolve around political rather than policy issues. However, in terms of policy, current market pricing may bring the risk of a dovish surprise. Citigroup's rate cut forecast: A total of 50 basis points (June and September). Opinion: If the next rate cut aims at policy normalization rather than addressing immediate risks, policymakers may seek a broader consensus than in December, provided there is clearer progress on inflation. Powell's statement: He is likely to emphasize that the three rate cuts just completed have helped stabilize the job market and that the current policy stance is sound and suitable for assessing its impact. JPMorgan's rate cut forecast: No rate cuts in 2026. Key point: After three risk-management rate cuts, many FOMC members have indicated that now is the appropriate time to pause action. Powell's statement: He is expected to indicate that current policy is sufficient to address the risks of the dual mandate and will avoid discussing various political issues involving the Fed. Wells Fargo's rate cut forecast: A total of 50 basis points in rate cuts (March and June). Opinion: A strong argument is that the longer the FOMC waits for a rate cut, the higher the economic threshold for justifying further policy easing becomes. Powell's statement: He is not expected to hint at possible further policy easing at the next meeting in March. He will likely be asked questions related to the Justice Department's investigation, but his response is expected to be consistent with previous ones. (Jin Shi)