What is a Black Swan? At midnight on the 30th, Polymarket still showed a 31% probability of Warsh being nominated as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, and gold and silver prices were soaring that people were losing sleep. No one could have predicted, through any clues, that the most dramatic single-day sell-off in history would occur the following day. If one had to find divine revelation, perhaps the signal would be that the group of people on the periphery of the investment market suddenly started investing in the most clumsy way.