Coinbase Premium Strengthens Bitcoin Bearish Signals, US Spot Demand Drops
As Bitcoin (BTC) loses its $80,000 (approximately KRW 115.54 million) support level and falls to the $74,000 (approximately KRW 106.92 million) level, concerns are growing that the market is moving beyond a simple correction and into a full-blown downtrend. In particular, the rapidly cooling spot demand in the US, evident in on-chain indicators, is adding to the downward pressure.
CryptoQuant, an on-chain data analytics firm, recently compared investor behavior from February to April of this year with the period from November of last year to present. In the past, even when Bitcoin corrected, the Coinbase Premium Index, the largest US exchange, only briefly recorded negative numbers, quickly leading to a recovery in buying sentiment. However, recently, the negative trend has deepened and become more prolonged, and it's notable that US investors are reluctant to buy even when prices fall.
Coinbase Premium Shifts from Strategic Selling to Structural Selling
According to the report, the Coinbase premium doesn't simply reflect trading pressure; it also reflects a significant weakening of US-based spot demand itself. While previous bull markets saw a quick rebound after a brief sell-off, the current discount is persisting as buying momentum has stalled. The fact that the index hasn't returned to positive territory even after a short-term correction signals that spot-based buyers are continuing to refrain from entering the market.
This shift is evident in price movements. When a decline occurs, there's little inflow to U.S. exchanges, and even when a rebound occurs, it quickly collapses without support from spot buyers. Consequently, the market is increasingly relying on short-term positioning, centered on leverage and derivatives.
Bitcoin technical indicators also confirm a bearish trend.
A look at Bitcoin's weekly chart supports the analysis that, after peaking at $120,000 (approximately 173.31 million won) in mid-2025, it has entered a "distribution phase," with lower highs and lower lows. Notably, the recent drop to the $74,000-$77,000 range (approximately 106.92 million-111.17 million won) range is the first since April of last year, suggesting a collapse of a key support level.
This decline is also influenced by weakening technical indicators. Bitcoin is currently trading below its 50-week moving average, which has recently begun to decline. This is considered a signal that medium-term upward momentum has lost momentum. Furthermore, the 100-week moving average is acting as resistance near $85,000 (approximately KRW 122.76 million), above the current price.
Trading volume also exacerbates the situation. During the downturn, trading volume was higher than during the recent sideways movement, suggesting a "distribution" phenomenon by a large number of investors rather than simple individual selling. The last rebound was also minimal, without sufficient trading volume, making it difficult for the rebound to continue.
Conditions for a rebound include a recovery in US spot demand, but downside remains open for the time being.
In conclusion, Bitcoin is currently structurally vulnerable unless spot buying by U.S. investors recovers. A resurgence in the uptrend can only be expected if the Coinbase premium turns positive and a sustained positive flow is observed. Otherwise, a rebound from the current price range is limited, and a further decline to the long-term support level in the low $60,000 range (approximately 86.65 million won) is possible in the long term.
Bitcoin stands at a critical inflection point, with both a lack of demand and technical bearish signals emerging internally. Ultimately, the direction of its next move will be determined by whether spot demand in the US recovers.
💡 “Are you interpreting the signals behind the numbers correctly?”
Since the exit of US investors, the market has been driven by the 'discount' rather than the exchange premium.
If you fail to recognize that the root cause of the price decline is a decline in demand and structural selling, you will be helpless against the rebound.
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TP AI Precautions
This article was summarized using a TokenPost.ai-based language model. Key points in the text may be omitted or inaccurate.
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