The U.S. ADP employment report for January showed that private sector job growth slowed significantly, far below market expectations, reflecting a cooling labor market and declining corporate hiring intentions.
According to the ADP report released on February 4, 2026, the U.S. private sector added only 22,000 jobs in January, far below market expectations of 45,000 to 48,000. The previous figure for December was revised to 37,000, indicating a significant slowdown in this month's growth.
Industry performance diverges, with education and healthcare leading the way.
In terms of industry sectors, education and healthcare services were the main contributors, adding a significant 74,000 jobs this month. Excluding this contribution, overall employment data might have shown negative growth. Conversely, manufacturing has seen negative growth for several consecutive months, decreasing by 8,000 jobs this month; professional and business services saw a sharp decline of 57,000 jobs; construction saw a slight increase of 9,000 jobs; and financial activities added 14,000 jobs.
This divergence shows that defensive industries such as education and healthcare remain resilient, while economically sensitive industries such as manufacturing and professional services are becoming more conservative in hiring, reflecting a lack of confidence among businesses in the future economic outlook.
Regarding wages, the annual salary growth rate for employed workers remained at 4.5% in January, similar to the previous month, indicating that wage growth is moderate and stable, with no signs of acceleration. The overall slowdown in employment growth may mean further easing of inflationary pressures, but it also increases uncertainty about a soft landing for the economy.
The prospect of interest rate cuts remains unclear.
Regarding the interest rate cut issue that the market is focused on, the CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve (Fed) not resuming rate cuts before June this year remains high. However, there is a clear division in the market regarding whether there will be a rate cut at the June meeting: the probability of maintaining the current interest rate is about 44.7%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 44.8%, almost evenly matched. Weak ADP employment data may increase some investors' expectations for an earlier rate cut, but whether further policy easing is needed still requires more evidence to confirm.
Bitcoin falls in the short term
In the cryptocurrency market, following the release of the ADP report, Bitcoin briefly fell from $76,000 to around $75,000, currently trading at $75,150. Ethereum followed a similar pattern, briefly dipping below $2,200 before quickly rebounding to $2,210.
