[2.5 Recap] I was bearish from January 29th, and today US stocks plummeted, hahaha, and I ended up losing quite a bit! There are two main reasons: First, at the low point of $smh, instead of taking profits, I added to my position with leverage, doubling down, and then the SMH rebounded; second, the IV changes... The point of this is to say that I'm a "swing trader." Of course, I don't like losing money intraday, but sometimes losing money is a necessary price to pay. For example, if the SMH falls tomorrow, I'll make a big profit.

What will happen to US stocks next? It's hard to say! This round of decline is not a "general decline" (due to fundamental reasons), but purely a "deleveraging" caused by "positioning". Some sectors with relatively high leverage ratios have fallen sharply; while defensive sectors that were previously ignored have not fallen much. This kind of "non-fundamental" plunge is actually an "adjustment", and a rebound or reversal is possible at any time (2).

Therefore, this round of market activity is particularly challenging. Currently, I have these positions that I'm quite confident in: 1. Short South Korean stocks (2024111120230), which is essentially short memory chips; 2. Short semiconductor stocks (2024111120231), a sector with relatively high leverage in the past; 3. I believe the recent "inflation trading" frenzy surrounding gold, silver, copper, iron, and oil is over, and it's time to short them (but I haven't chosen a specific stock yet, and I don't have a position).

I currently have two strong bullish convictions. The first is $tlt, which I entered on Wednesday and made a good profit today; the second is $nvo, also entered on Wednesday, which resulted in a significant loss today... But regardless of profit or loss, these two bullish convictions are my strongest bullish beliefs at present. TLT represents a short-term swing, while NVO represents a very long-term swing; I'm basically prepared to hold it for at least three months.