They made a fortune quietly by predicting weather and temperatures. One earned $1.11 million in a single transaction, while another consistently earned tens of thousands of dollars.
If someone told you that there are some clever traders who can make money by predicting the weather and temperature, would you believe it?
The trader pictured above, named neobrother, has been betting heavily on the weather in various cities on Polymarkets, accumulating profits exceeding $20,000. He's not a blindly speculative gambler, but a highly data-driven, vertically focused expert skilled in leverage and odds. neobrother's trading record almost exclusively focuses on weather forecasts, particularly the daily maximum temperatures of major cities worldwide (Buenos Aires, Miami, Ankara, Chicago, New York).
He doesn't gamble on "the overall trend," but only on "precision," much like a grid arbitrageur in the meteorological field.
Taking Buenos Aires temperature forecasting as an example, he didn't just bet on one temperature. Instead, he used a "temperature laddering" strategy, simultaneously buying "yes" for 29°C, 30°C, 31°C, 32°C, 33°C, and even 34°C+. This approach is similar to "straddle arbitrage" or "grid trading" in options. By placing dense low-price orders (0.2¢ – 15¢) within the high-probability temperature range, if the final temperature falls within this range, the extremely high returns of one or two positions (such as the 811.78% return from 31°C) can cover the losses of all other ladders and generate huge profits.
Furthermore, he excels at capturing extremely low-probability profit opportunities. Most of the market predictions he buys are at very low prices. For example, on his position in Buenos Aires 32°C, his average purchase price was only 0.7¢. This purchase price means he has nearly 142 times the potential odds. The screenshot shows that this position has now risen to 5¢ (a 733% increase).
He can profit from dramatic price fluctuations caused by weather forecast biases at minimal cost. This style requires a deep understanding of weather models (such as ECMWF or GFS) and the ability to decisively position oneself when market prices lag behind.
These 2,373 predictions indicate extremely frequent and highly automated/systematic trading. This strongly suggests a quantitative or semi-quantitative trader using scripts to monitor weather forecast changes in real time and place orders. Instead of tying up large sums of money in a single position, they continuously aim for hundreds of times the return through minimal investment, quickly withdrawing profits or compounding them further.
He might have a more accurate and timely weather forecast source than most retail investors on Polymarket (possibly connected to a weather station API). Politics and sports have too much noise, while weather is pure physics and mathematics. As long as the model is accurate enough, this is his inexhaustible ATM.
If this trader is a "weather geek" who precisely calculates weather patterns in a laboratory, then Hans323 is a "black swan hunter" and "top odds master" on Polymarket. In London weather forecasts, he dared to bet $92,000 in a single trade with only an 8% chance of winning, and made a staggering profit of $1.11 million.
Hans323's operations have moved beyond simple prediction; he is using **extremely asymmetric risk-reward ratios** to carry out large-scale capital harvesting.
Looking at his winning record, his buy-in prices are typically between 2¢ and 8¢. In the prediction market, this means the market believes the probability of the event occurring is only 2% to 8%. An average player might only invest $10 in a 2¢ bet, but Hans323 dared to invest $92,632 (London temperature bet) at an 8¢ price.
This strategy is similar to hedge fund manager Nassim Tareber's "barbell investing." He doesn't care if 90% of his predictions fail, because just one hit with a return of 1,100% or even 5,300% is enough to cover the costs of thousands of trial and error attempts.
Unlike Neobrother's "tiered full coverage", Hans323 prefers to invest heavily in specific, statistically biased narrow points, which requires strong confidence and underlying model support.
Furthermore, examining all of their past trading records suggests that this trader may be an all-rounder, possibly backed by a powerful data-gathering team or intelligence sources in a specific vertical field. For example, in the political arena: they bet that Trump would issue fewer than 10 executive orders in June (7¢ entry), in the sports arena, they decisively bought in when the odds of Scottie Scheffler winning the PGA Tour were extremely low (2¢), and in the cultural field, they successfully predicted Time magazine's Person of the Year (6¢), all of which yielded impressive results.
While making money is important, ordinary users shouldn't just look at the win rate when tracking the trading records of top Polymarker traders. They should also pay attention to the capital skewness and their own risk management. The same large loss can be tolerated vastly by different people.
