Short-term Bitcoin holders are increasingly surrendering and selling, while long-term holders remain silent.
Bitcoin (BTC) continues its price volatility, failing to find clear support near the $70,000 level (approximately 122.76 million won). Amidst growing market tensions due to a combination of short-term selling pressure, depressed sentiment, and slowing trading volume, some experts are warning of the possibility of further declines.
The market is currently observing the $70,000 level as short-term support for Bitcoin. However, with buying pressure failing to materialize, signs of a shift to a "supply-dominated market" are emerging, fueled by increasing exchange inflows. Specifically, Darkfost, a data analyst at CryptoQuant, revealed that approximately 60,000 BTC moved to exchanges over the past 24 hours. This represents the largest daily inflow this year, suggesting a clear cash-out mentality among market participants.
Short-term holders' losses confirmed… Signs of "surrender capture" are evident.
According to Darkpost, most of the Bitcoin recently transferred to exchanges was transferred by short-term holders. These holders appear to be selling or preparing to sell their coins at a lower price than they purchased them. This suggests that "capitulation," where holders accept losses and release their holdings back into the market, is becoming a reality.
On the other hand, long-term holders are barely moving. They are refusing to sell their Bitcoin despite having a high profit margin relative to their purchase price. This shows that investors who believe in a long-term upward trend are still adopting a "wait-and-see" strategy in the market.
This trend has often occurred in the past, and a short-term rebound is possible after selling pressure has been absorbed to a certain level. However, if supply continues to outperform or buying demand fails to recover, the market may experience a more prolonged correction.
No clear bottom signal yet… Market direction 'undecided'
Several indicators that signal a bottom for Bitcoin have yet to clearly emerge. Several factors, including stabilization of the realized price-to-earnings ratio (SOPR), declining exchange inflows, and new accumulation signals, must be present for the market to regain its bearings.
Ultimately, the market is contemplating a "turning point" amidst the increased selling by short-term holders and the silence of long-term holders. While the bear market will likely continue to fluctuate for the time being, the correction could be completed depending on whether trading volume and investor sentiment recover. However, downside risks, such as deteriorating liquidity or external economic factors, cannot be ruled out.
Bitcoin is currently at a structurally vulnerable point. The market's next direction will likely be determined by who can hold out longer.
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TP AI Precautions
This article was summarized using a TokenPost.ai-based language model. Key points in the text may be omitted or inaccurate.
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