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Recently, there has been a lot of discussion about the US stop-loss line. Today, let's talk about the leveraged stop-loss line in the crypto. It's not just the recent on-chain whale hunt and the rumored liquidation of TradFi institutions; similar stories keep happening around us in every cycle. Friends are repeatedly misled by the so-called "margin of safety" of low leverage, thinking that as long as the leverage is low enough, they can avoid liquidation. However, the real core risk of crypto assets is never about directional judgment, but whether you've exposed yourself within the "kill line." The kill line isn't a specific price point, but rather a price fluctuation range that, in extreme circumstances, will almost inevitably be reached when using leverage; once leverage is used, the outcome is predetermined, and the rest is just a matter of time. Many people believe that as long as contracts are not used and low leverage of 20%–50% is employed in on-chain lending protocols, it is safe enough to avoid being liquidated. However, the problem is that crypto itself is a volatility amplifier, coupled with extremely strong reflexivity, resulting in an extremely wide range of liquidation opportunities, far exceeding most people's intuitive expectations. Taking BTC as an example, in a 6-month trend, the range of losses is roughly between -60% and +120%; while for mainstream Altcoin such as ETH and SOL, this range can even reach -85% to +250%. Most leveraged swing trading strategies inherently require 3-5 months to realize profits, meaning that adding leverage at any point in time greatly increases the likelihood of being wiped out. In particular, strategies are often reused; for example, a single successful trade (selling at the top) can further incentivize you to repeat the same strategy (leveraged buy the dips). Even with leverage as low as 20%, after several repeated swings, being wiped out is almost mathematically inevitable. Those who directly use contracts (10x+ leverage), like Machi Big Brother, will inevitably fall into an endless cycle of being wiped out every morning upon waking up. The only reasonable use of leverage in crypto assets is leverage that is not exposed to the stop-loss line, is completely delta neutral, does not make any directional judgments on the price of the underlying asset, and only earns structural, non-directional returns (such as basis arbitrage, or interest rate arbitrage of borrowing low and depositing high in the same currency); even so, it is possible to collapse due to one-sided liquidation (such as the rumored failure of hedging unwinding by a TradFi institution). Apart from that, only spot trading remains, because it has already moved beyond leverage and is no longer subject to the sell-off.

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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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