The 4 year cycle advocates like @MarkYusko are simply bad at math.
Yes, of course, every 4 years the mining reward gets cut in two. But this is not the cause of Bull markets. At least not any more. Everything is happening on the demand side not the supply side.
The 2012 halving cut issuance from 25% of total supply to 12%. That's a massive supply shock, which had an impact.
The 2024 having reduced new supply from 1.7% to 0.8%. It's an insignificant amount of Bitcoin.
The math behind this was due to the flawed stock to flow model which has been completely debunked.
Mark Yusko, like others believes in Astrology.

Twitter

Author | Jeff Park (Chief Information Officer, Bitwise)
Compiled by Odaily Odaily(@OdailyChina)
Translator | Dingdang (@XiaMiPP)
Editor's Note: On February 5th, the cryptocurrency market experienced another sharp drop, with over $2.6 billion liquidated in 24 hours. Bitcoin briefly plummeted to $60,000, but the market seems to lack a clear consensus on the causes of this decline. Jeff Park, CIO of Bitwise, offers a new analytical framework from the perspective of options and hedging mechanisms. [...]

The Black Swan Event Was Actually This: The Real Reason for the Recent Bitcoin Crash

The release of this new regulation marks a historic leap in the attitude of Chinese regulators towards virtual assets, shifting from a "complete ban" to a "combination of restriction and guidance."

Article Author & Source: Guofeng Law Firm On February 6, 2026, the "Notice on Further Preventing and Handling Risks Related to Virtual Currencies" (Yinfa [2026] No. 42, hereinafter referred to as "Document No. 42"), jointly issued by eight ministries led by the People's Bank of China, and the "Regulatory Guidelines on the Issuance of Asset-Backed Securities Tokens Overseas by Domestic Assets" (hereinafter referred to as the "Guidelines") simultaneously issued by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, have triggered significant reactions in the legal and financial circles...

Breaking News! The Year of China's RWA: A Compliant Channel Opens for Trillions of Yuan in Domestic Assets to Go Global

Bitcoin has recovered from a low near $60,000 to now stand around $69,000, having effectively given back the gains it made after Donald Trump’s election in November 2024 this week.
The cryptocurrency’...

Bitcoin slips below $70,000 after erasing post-election gains during 'sell at any price' rout

If I am bad at math, what does that make you, completely innumerate…? 🤔
Fact is, you have been wrong since October, and continue to stay wrong, which also means you might just be intellectually dishonest for sake of engagement and clicks… 🤷🏻‍♂️

Damn. Mark just destroyed this guy.
Rightfully so. Ego is no excuse to keep misleading your audience simply because you don’t want to say you were wrong.