Amidst the dramatic fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market, with prices currently hovering around 70,000 as of press time, investors are generally concerned about whether the current Bitcoin rebound is a temporary "dying bottom bounce" or has approached a four-year cycle support level. Scott Melk, a popular influencer and host of the Street Wolf Podcast, analyzed various technical indicators and market behavior on Yahoo Finance to provide his observations and perspectives on this issue.
Street Wolf believes market sentiment has turned optimistic.
Scott Melker, host of The Wolf of All Streets Podcast, stated that the recent price volatility of Bitcoin (BTC) has attracted significant market attention. The 200-day moving average and the 50-day moving average on the monthly chart are both concentrated in the range of approximately 57,000 to 58,000, which most traders consider key support levels. Previously, the market experienced a large-scale, systemic sell-off, described as capitulation selling pressure, which continued until the close. However, the trading volume the following day increased significantly, even exceeding the total selling volume of the previous day. In addition to Bitcoin, the overall cryptocurrency market also saw an upward trend, indicating that the selling pressure may have been largely released in the short term. Barring any major black swan events, market sentiment is shifting from extreme pessimism to relatively stable optimism.
There are differing opinions in the market regarding the four-year cycle of Bitcoin.
Opinions are increasingly divided on whether Bitcoin will continue to follow its previous four-year cycles. Historical data suggests that past highs have often occurred within specific timeframes, but this cycle differs significantly from previous ones in several aspects. Bitcoin reached its all-time high earlier than expected due to the approval of its ETF, causing a structural shift in its price rhythm. Furthermore, aside from assets with ETF backing, most cryptocurrencies have experienced limited volatility during this cycle. Even under a relatively favorable regulatory and legislative environment, prices have repeatedly declined, indicating that the market may have already priced in the policy benefits, and their impact on price increases is weakening.
Bitcoin is becoming more institutionalized, with ETFs taking a share of the crypto trading market.
As Bitcoin continues to institutionalize, the market structure is gradually diverging. Bitcoin can now be accessed through ETFs in retirement accounts and large brokerage firms, with related reports and trading volumes steadily increasing. In contrast, most Altcoin have seen significant declines year-to-date, with Ethereum falling by more than 30% and other tokens nearly halved. Against this backdrop, a distinction between "owners" and "non-owners" is gradually emerging in the market: assets with ETFs, institutional adoption, or real-world applications are more likely to receive funding support; tokens lacking these conditions mainly remain in the retail market. The widespread "Altcoin season" phenomenon of the past is unlikely to reappear in the future.
Bitcoin may remain under pressure in the short term, primarily due to the lack of clear new catalysts and the high valuations of global stock markets coupled with a fear-driven sentiment, posing a potential systemic risk. If a market-wide sell-off similar to that during the 2020 pandemic occurs again, all assets could decline in tandem. However, historical experience also shows that Bitcoin's rebound has been relatively significant after periods of extreme panic. Scott Melker believes that Bitcoin possesses strong resilience after weathering significant volatility and is optimistic that it will maintain its upward momentum.
This article, titled "Bitcoin's Dying Rebound: Podcast Talk Shower Analysts Believe Short-Term Selling Pressure Has Been Released," first appeared on ABMedia, a ABMedia .
