SPX6900 bottomed out in 2025, a quick recovery is unlikely.

The SPX6900 (SPX) is surging 10.2% in 24 hours, but volume has decreased by 38.2%, indicating a lack of clear confirmation for the short-term upward momentum.

Amidst the volatile memecoin market, SPX is still down 8.79% in 7 days and 51.95% in 30 days. Risk assessment needs to be considered in conjunction with Bitcoin's trend and the overall weakness of the memecoin group.

The SPX6900 rose 10.2%, but the decrease in volume is a warning sign.

The SPX rose in price over the past 24 hours, but volume decreased sharply compared to the previous day, which typically reflects insufficient buying pressure to confirm an uptrend.

SPX6900 (SPX) is a memecoin on the Ethereum (ETH) network, built as a "mimicking" version of the S&P 500 index. In the last 24 hours, the price increased by 10.2%, but the daily volume decreased by 38.2% compared to the previous major sell-off.

The "price up but volume down" pattern often increases the probability of a reversal, especially with memecoins which are sensitive to sentiment and liquidation. This doesn't necessarily mean SPX will fall immediately, but it suggests the increase may be primarily due to a technical rebound or short-term speculative positions.

The 30-day drop in SPX reflects the characteristic volatility of memecoins.

SPX has fallen sharply over the past 30 days, but this level of volatility is not uncommon in memecoins, especially as the industry's overall market Capital is shrinking.

Over the past 7 days, SPX has fallen 8.79%, and over the past 30 days, it has dropped 51.95%. For investors familiar with traditional markets, these declines may be "unpleasant," but they are a common occurrence for memecoins.

The overall outlook is also unfavorable: the entire memecoin market Capital has fallen 35% in 30 days. Dogecoin (Doge), the leading coin in the group, has dropped 33% in a month. This information helps put SPX's more volatile performance into context: SPX isn't declining in a "vacuum," but within a broader segment weakness.

The SPX's chances of recovery largely depend on Bitcoin's momentum.

The SPX could rebound significantly as Bitcoin recovers, but the risk remains high if Bitcoin falls back to the $60,000 range or lower.

Short-term investors should exercise caution, but those who "surf" the rebound may find opportunities. During the rebound on February 6th, Bitcoin (BTC) increased by 19.59%, from $60,000 to $71,700.

On the same day, SPX surged even more sharply, increasing by 41.15%, from $0.2214 to $0.3125. This shows that SPX has a high beta compared to BTC: when BTC recovers, SPX can amplify the increase, but when BTC corrects, SPX can also fall further.

The weekly structure of the SPX still holds support, but a new Dip cannot be ruled out.

The weekly swing structure of the SPX has not been broken as there has been no weekly candle closing below $0.2533, but the scenario of a lower Dip remains if BTC weakens.

The $0.2533 level (the Dip recorded since March 2025) is currently XEM a crucial support level on the weekly chart as it has not been broken by a weekly candle closing below this level. This is a relatively positive factor for buyers, at least structurally.

However, BTC is described as having a bearish weekly structure. In that environment, buying SPX simply because it “looks cheap” could be a risky decision: there is no guarantee SPX won’t create new swing Dip if BTC pulls back to $60,000 or lower again.

The $0.45 level is a prominent "sell on pullback" point for traders.

The $0.45 level has been identified as a key horizontal resistance/support zone; traders may consider selling if the price retraces to this level given the continued strong downward momentum.

The price action over the past two months has highlighted $0.45 as a crucial horizontal support/resistance zone. In November and December, buyers defended this support level quite well, but lost it in mid-January.

On the daily chart, the $0.45 level is also mentioned as the 50% retracement point of the most recent decline. Simultaneously, technical indicators show high selling pressure and strong downward momentum, reinforcing the argument that rallies may be opportunities to exit positions rather than chase the rally.

SPX could rebound higher, but this scenario is considered unlikely.

The SPX could break above $0.45 and move toward $0.58–$0.678, but the likelihood is XEM low and would be accompanied by extreme volatility.

In the event of a favorable overall market and BTC maintaining its upward trend, SPX could experience a stronger surge than anticipated, possibly even reaching the $0.58–$0.678 range. However, this scenario is considered "possible but not likely".

Therefore, investors need to prepare for extreme volatility in both directions. Monitoring BTC 's trend (especially major support/resistance zones and price reactions) is key to assessing whether SPX is likely to continue its recovery or revert to a downtrend.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is the 10.2% increase in 24 hours for the SPX6900 reliable?

The upward trend needs caution as daily volume decreased by 38.2% compared to the previous session. With memecoin, the price may surge due to technical rebounds or speculative capital flows, but a lack of supporting volume often increases the risk of an upward reversal.

What is the most important technical milestone for the SPX right now?

In terms of weekly structure, the $0.2533 level is a crucial support level as no weekly candle has closed below this level. Regarding a "sell on pullback" strategy, the $0.45 level is XEM a prominent horizontal support/resistance level and was previously a lost support.

Why should you monitor Bitcoin when trading SPX?

SPX tends to fluctuate sharply in line with BTC. When BTC surges, SPX can rise even more sharply (like the 6/2 pattern), but if BTC corrects to $60,000 or lower, SPX could form a new Dip even though it currently appears to be in a "cheap-looking" price range.