[Musk 3-Hour In-Depth Interview] "Within 3 Years, the Cheapest AI Will Be in Space... Optimus is a Machine That Will Create Infinite Wealth" Elon Musk made a bold prediction: "Within 3 years, space will become the cheapest place to run AI due to Earth's power shortage." He outlined a blueprint for creating infinite wealth by launching 10,000 Starships to build a massive computing network in space, developing "digital humans" with xAI, and mass-producing the humanoid robot "Optimus." In a three-hour conversation with Dwarkesh Patel and John Collison (Stripe co-founder) on February 6th, Musk presented a more specific and aggressive vision than ever before regarding the synergies between his businesses and future revenue models. -------------------- 1. "Within the next 36 months, space will be the cheapest place to deploy AI." The market is skeptical about the continued growth of AI computing power. However, Musk is confident that within 36 months, or as early as 30 months, space will become the most cost-effective location for AI deployment, and that the gap will only widen. He pointed out the imbalance between the stagnant global electricity production (excluding China) and the explosive growth of chip production. "Chips are being produced exponentially, but power production remains stagnant. What are they going to power those chips with? Is there some kind of magical energy source? Or are they going to summon some kind of electric genie?" Musk predicted that by the end of this year, when the chip supply is fully available, we will be left with "mountains of chips sitting idle, unable to plug them in." The solution he proposed is "space." In space, there is no day or night, no clouds, and no atmospheric obstruction. Solar energy is five times more efficient than on Earth, eliminating the need for expensive energy storage systems (ESS). A quick calculation reveals that the cost-effectiveness of space data centers is orders of magnitude higher than on Earth. When asked what would happen if a GPU fails in space, he coolly replied: "The question is how modern the GPUs are. From what we've seen so far, they can withstand quite well in space." -------------------- 2. "In five years, the AI capabilities we launch into space will surpass the entire Earth." Musk's goal is mind-boggling. "In five years, the AI computing power we launch into space every year will exceed the combined AI computing power of all AI computing on Earth." This plan requires placing approximately 100 gigawatts (GW) of solar panels and servers into orbit each year, equivalent to 10,000 Starship launches. As Dwakesh Patel puts it, "That's almost like launching a Starship every hour." This signifies SpaceX's evolution beyond a simple rocket company into a "mega-infrastructure provider" for the AI era. -------------------- 3. The Future of xAI: "Digital Employees" in a Trillion-Dollar Market How will xAI make money? Musk pointed to "digital human emulation," an AI that performs all the tasks a human sitting in front of a computer can perform. He defined big tech companies like Nvidia and Apple as essentially "digital output" companies that transmit files and blueprints. If a digital human, a "digital version of Optimus," is completed, its market value will reach trillions of dollars (hundreds of trillions of won). "If digital human simulation isn't solved by the end of this year, that would be even more surprising. It's the technological limit we can reach before building physical robots." Musk attributed xAI's competitive edge to its "overwhelming speed in hardware construction." While competitors struggle to secure parts, xAI's strategy is to leverage the capabilities of Tesla and SpaceX (e.g., completing the supercomputer "Colossus" in 19 days) to build an unsurpassable computational barrier. -------------------- 4. Optimus: A Source of Infinite Wealth and the Last Hope for American Manufacturing Musk described the humanoid robot Optimus as an "infinite money printer." Intelligence, chip performance, and mechanical movement are all rapidly increasing, and once a low-cost structure for robots to build robots is established, the economy will expand explosively. He emphasized that Optimus is not only a growth engine for Tesla, but also a crucial factor in the survival of American manufacturing. Musk praised China's manufacturing capabilities, acknowledging that in areas such as basic mineral refining, China is "twice as powerful as the rest of the world combined." "If the US fails to achieve groundbreaking innovation, China will utterly dominate us. We can never outnumber China, which has four times the population. But what if we face them with robots? That's a fight worth fighting." -------------------- 5. "If the supply chain can't keep up, we'll build it ourselves"... Musk's plan for his own TeraFab The current supply chain (transformers, chips, turbine components, etc.) is too slow to realize this ambitious plan. That's why Musk proposed building a "TeraFab" (a terawatt-class chip factory). Own semiconductor factory (TeraFab): Rather than waiting for TSMC or Samsung to bottleneck us, he'll build it himself. This is especially true for producing "space chips" that can withstand radiation and extreme heat. "I'll figure out how to build a factory. I've never built one before, but I'll get there eventually." Internalization of energy equipment: SpaceX and Tesla also hinted at the possibility of manufacturing gas turbine components, which have been a contributing factor to the delay in power plant construction. -------------------- [Summary and Conclusion] At the end of the interview, Musk said, "I'd rather be optimistic and take on challenges and be wrong than be pessimistic and be right." What Musk presented to investors wasn't a simple performance goal. It was a massive industrial ecosystem that connected Earth and space, and united energy and artificial intelligence. While the technical difficulty is extremely high, his direction is clear: "If we want to advance human civilization (Kardashev scale), the only way is to go into space and directly harvest solar energy." wallstreetcn.com/articles/3765...