As key macroeconomic data releases are delayed and annual benchmark revisions approach, market concerns over whether economic data still carry forward-looking value have intensified. The January nonfarm payroll report has been postponed to Wednesday and will coincide with the release of revised annual employment benchmarks. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics has already preliminarily indicated that job growth between April 2024 and March 2025 was overstated by approximately 911,000 positions. Assessments from Bank of America and internal Federal Reserve analysis suggest that monthly job gains in the second half of 2025 could be revised down by 20,000–60,000, implying total annual job creation of only around 584,000—potentially the weakest post-pandemic reading.
Cross-asset performance reflects a divided capital stance. US equities rebounded last week after a series of declines, with the Dow briefly reclaiming the 50,000 level, while US Treasury yields moved lower and safe-haven demand re-emerged. This divergence suggests that confidence in risk assets has not meaningfully recovered. Heightened volatility in precious metals and oil prices—spiking and then retracing on geopolitical headlines—has further amplified macro uncertainty.
The crypto market has responded more directly to this environment. On February 6, BTC briefly dipped to around $59,800 before rebounding sharply into the $71,000 range, indicating the presence of structural demand at lower levels. From a risk-pricing perspective, however, this move appears more consistent with a post-deleveraging technical rebound rather than the start of a renewed risk-on cycle. Close attention should be paid to whether the $71,363 resistance level can be decisively reclaimed, as this zone corresponds to a key structural level from the prior decline and will serve as a critical gauge of whether capital is willing to re-engage with risk.
With both nonfarm payrolls and CPI now characterized by high uncertainty and reduced credibility, short-term market pricing has shifted away from reacting to individual data outcomes. Instead, markets are increasingly focused on a broader assessment of policy flexibility, revision risk, and liquidity tolerance. In this context, BTC price action will continue to reflect changes in macro risk absorption rather than signaling the launch of an independent trend.
