The crypto market is poised for a week of significant Token unlocks. According to data from Tokenomist , the total value of Token unlocked over the next 7 days is estimated to exceed $278 million , including both cliff unlocks and linear unlocks.
Amid declining market liquidation and increased cautious sentiment, this additional supply could put further pressure on prices in several asset classes.
One-time unlocks (Cliff Unlock)
The period from February 9th to February 16th saw several large unlocks, each valued at over $5 million USD:
CONX : Unlocked 1.32 million Token, worth approximately $15.72 million (1.56% of the circulating supply).
AVAX : Unlocked 2.37 million Token, worth approximately $21.51 million (0.45% of the supply).
APT : Unlocked 12.46 million Token, worth approximately $13.32 million (0.76% of the supply).
STRK : Unlocked 127 million Token, worth approximately $6.28 million (4.61% of the supply).
Among these, STRK has the highest unlock rate relative to the circulating supply, and therefore may be more sensitive to selling pressure if the Token is allocated to early investors or the development team.
Cliff unlocks typically create more volatility because a large number of Token are released simultaneously, immediately increasing the supply on the market.
Linear Unlocks
In addition, many projects continue to Token Lockup in a linear fashion, with the value exceeding $1 million per day:
RAIN : $86.65 million (2.59% of circulating supply).
SOL : $41.52 million (0.08% of supply).
CC : $32.34 million (0.46% of supply).
TRUMP : $21.26 million (1.30% of supply).
RIVER : $15.77 million (3.17% of supply).
WLD : $14.48 million (0.80% of supply).
Doge : $9.16 million (0.06% of supply).
Unlike cliff unlocks, linear unlocks typically create supply pressure that is spread out over time. However, if the ratio to the circulating supply is high, the impact on price can still be significant, especially for low- liquidation Token .
Potential impact on the market
The total value of $278 million is not a huge number compared to the total market Capital of cryptocurrencies. However, the actual impact does not depend entirely on the nominal value, but rather on:
The ratio of unlocked Token to the circulating supply.
The recipients of the Token (teams, investment funds, Staking rewards).
The actual liquidation of the Token on the exchange.
The context of market trends at the time of unlocking.
In a market currently leaning towards defensiveness, Token with an unlock rate exceeding 3% of the circulating supply may face greater volatility.
What should investors keep in mind?
Instead of reacting solely based on the unlock value, investors should monitor:
Fluctuations in volume before and after the unlock date.
on-chain cash flow from vesting wallets.
Funding rate and Open Interest (for Derivative markets).
Price reaction at key support levels.
In some cases, the price has already reflected the unlock information beforehand. In such instances, the actual selling pressure may be lower than expected.
Conclude
Next week, the crypto market will see a significant amount of Token unlocks totaling over $278 million. While not every unlock leads to a sell-off, in the context of weakening liquidation , the additional supply pressure could increase volatility in some assets.
Investors should approach unlocked information by analyzing the supply and demand structure and managing risks appropriately, rather than reacting emotionally to large numbers.
