Author: Wenser
Original title: Kalshi's trading volume continues to break new records, what is a reasonable pre-market share price?
During the market downturn, prediction markets became the brightest sector in the crypto market. During the market crash in early February, BTC and ETH once fell by more than 10%, but prediction market trading remained active, with weekly transactions reaching a record high of 26.39 million. Meanwhile, Kalshi, the largest compliant prediction market platform in the US, also jumped to the top of the sector in January with a trading volume exceeding $9.5 billion, setting a new record for monthly trading volume . This was followed by a new round of pricing in Kalshi's pre-market stock price.
Today we're going to discuss the question: what should be the reasonable pre-market price range for Kalshi, which is poised to become the "first stock in the prediction market"?
Overview of current pricing on cryptocurrency tokenization trading platforms: PreStocks, Jarsy
As of writing, Kalshi's pre-market stock pricing shows a significant price difference between the two major cryptocurrency tokenization trading platforms:
On the PreStocks platform, Kalshi stock pre-market pricing includes two prices—
One price is the token price based on implied market capitalization (market liquidity pricing level), with a single share price of approximately $369;
The other price is the benchmark price based on capital market value (current financing pricing level), with a price of approximately $364 per share.
On the Jarsy platform, the pre-market price of Kalshi has jumped to around $504 per share.
It's worth noting that compared to when we wrote our previous article , "Kalshi's Pre-Market Stock Price Surges, Is It Still Too Late to Buy?" , Kalshi's pre-market stock price on both platforms had experienced varying degrees of fluctuation. The price situation at that time was as follows:
On PreStocks , Kalshi's implied market capitalization is approximately $14 billion, with a share price of approximately $407.
On Jarsy , Kalshi has a market capitalization of $11 billion and a share price of $450.
In other words, the price on the PreStocks platform fell from $407 to around $369; while the price on the Jarsy platform rose from $450 to around $504.
In contrast, the pre-market pricing of Kalshi's stock in traditional financial markets has also changed somewhat—
On the Nasdaq Private Market, the price of Kalshi shares rose from around $307 to around $320.
On Hiive, the price of Kalshi per share rose by $1 from around $357 to around $358.
Kalshi stock pre-market pricing range: around $320-$423.
Last year, Kalshi completed a $1 billion Series E funding round, valuing the company at $11 billion.
Based on the market capitalization and corresponding stock price mentioned above, Kalshi's stock count is approximately 30.72 million to 34.3 million shares.
Specifically, the method for calculating the number of shares is as follows—
Based on a market capitalization of $11 billion, corresponding to pre-market prices of $320 and $358 in traditional financial markets, the number of Kalshi shares is approximately 30.72 million to 34.37 million.
Based on the implied market capitalization/stock token price and capital market capitalization/stock benchmark price on the PreStocks platform, the number of Kalshi shares is approximately 34.27 million to 34.3 million.
Based on the pre-market purchase price per share on the Jarsy platform, Kalshi's market capitalization would be at most $18.665 billion, with a price per share of $604.84 and approximately 30.86 million shares.
Based on the above information, we can make the following deduction:
First, with a valuation of $11 billion, the reasonable pre-market pricing range for Kalshi stock is approximately $320-$358. In other words, the current pricing on crypto stock tokenization trading platforms such as PreStocks and Jarsy is relatively high.
Second, Kalshi's trading volume reached $9.5 billion in January, close to the overall market size of approximately $10 billion in October last year. In October last year, its market share was about 50% of the market. Based on this, Kalshi's current capital market valuation is at least $15 billion.
Third, based on a valuation of $15 billion and considering data such as the number of Kalshi shares, the pre-market pricing range for Kalshi shares is approximately $436 to $488.
Therefore, if the number of Kalshi shares meets expectations, based on an implied market capitalization of $15 billion, a conservative estimate suggests that the reasonable pre-market pricing range for Kalshi shares could be $320 to $378 (calculated using the average of the lowest prices in the pricing range); an optimistic estimate suggests that the reasonable pre-market pricing range for Kalshi shares could be $358 to $423 (calculated using the average of the highest prices in the pricing range).
Based on the above data, the Jarsy platform's pre-market pricing of Kalshi stock is too high, while the PreStocks platform presents certain arbitrage opportunities.
In addition, the latest stock tokenization trading platform Tessera plans to open equity public offerings in the future, which readers can also consider as an option ( invitation code here ).
Based on information previously published by Odaily Odaily in the article "Data Calculations Show Polymarket's Annual Revenue Exceeds 100 Million Isn't Difficult, Under the Premise of..." :
Based on static calculations of trading volume and fee rates in the "15-minute cryptocurrency price fluctuations" market on Polymarket, under the current trading volume and structure, if Polymarket were to introduce a similar fee model across all markets, it is estimated that the platform could generate $418 million in annual revenue.
As a prediction market platform with larger trading volume and higher fees, Kalshi's annual revenue is expected to surpass Polymarket's estimated revenue, taking advantage of the big year for sporting events in 2026. Based on this, the capital market may further raise Kalshi's pre-market stock price.
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