Robert Kiyosaki, author of Rich Dad Poor Dad, announced this morning on the X platform that he bought 1 Bitcoin for $67,000. He gave two reasons:
First, when the US debt problem impacts the dollar system, "massive money printing" will be initiated, and the Federal Reserve will once again print trillions of dollars in fiat currency.
Second, the total supply of Bitcoin, capped at 21 million, is nearing full mining. When the last Bitcoin is mined, it will have an advantage over gold.
The first argument is not new and is consistent with his long-held view that the value of fiat currency will collapse.
However, the second argument that Bitcoin is nearing full mining is premature. Although approximately 19.98 million Bitcoins have been mined so far, representing over 95% of the total supply of 21 million, only about 1 million remain to be mined. It is estimated that the last Bitcoin will be mined around 2140, which is still a long time away.
A price prediction of $250,000: Logic or Wish?
Kiyosaki predicted late last year that Bitcoin would reach $250,000, gold $27,000, and silver $100 by 2026. Based on his purchase price of $67,000, $250,000 would represent a return of nearly 3.7 times.
These predictions are based on the assumption that the "biggest stock market crash in history" is imminent. Kiyosaki has repeatedly claimed that he predicted this crash as early as 2013, and now it has finally "come true." His framework is: crash → Federal Reserve prints money → fiat currency devaluation → real assets and Bitcoin surge.
Gold and silver have indeed seen a surge in prices over the past few months, but Bitcoin has remained weak. Furthermore, this logic suffers from a fatal timing problem. Kiyosaki predicts an "imminent crash" almost every year.
His crash predictions have been going on for thirteen years, from 2013 to 2026. During this period, the US stock market experienced one of the longest bull markets in history, and Bitcoin rose from hundreds of dollars to hundreds of thousands of dollars before falling back to over 60,000. A person who is always predicting crashes will eventually be "right," but that might not be called prediction, but rather waiting.
The shelf life of the celebrity effect
In the world of cryptocurrency, the shelf life of celebrity endorsements is rapidly shrinking. The market has seen far too many "celebrity endorsements": from Musk's Dogecoin tweets to various celebrities promoting NFTs. What the market needs is not more incentives, but an auditable track record of transactions.
The beauty of on-chain data is that it doesn't lie, but only if you're willing to publicly disclose your address, which Kiyosaki has never done so far.
