Bitcoin (BTC) has shown the strongest relative strength among major asset classes since the US-Israeli attack on Iran intensified. Its weekly returns have even outperformed crude oil and gold, assets traditionally considered to benefit from war, suggesting the market's risk aversion formula is being shaken.
After President Trump authorized the launch of "Operation Epic Fury" airstrikes at 1:15 a.m. New York time on February 28, Bitcoin (BTC) rose 12.1%, from $65,492 to $73,419. During the same period, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices rose only 10.4%, from $67.29 to $74.31 per barrel.
Gold, a representative safe-haven asset, briefly surged immediately after the outbreak of war due to refugee demand, but subsequently fell by a cumulative 3%, compounded by a strong dollar. Silver reversed all of its gains stemming from war concerns and fell by 10.2%, defying expectations for the overall precious metals market. The S&P 500, considered the benchmark for the U.S. stock market, fell by 0.1%, effectively remaining flat.
The 'war = gold and oil strength' formula is creaking.
What's even more striking about this trend is that the conventional wisdom that "gold, the dollar, and crude oil are strong in times of war" is being shattered by short-term real-world data. Last week, as signs of US military deployment across the Atlantic to the Gulf region became apparent, gold and silver prices rose like a textbook example. However, once the war actually began, the dollar strengthened and inflation concerns mounted, leading some to interpret this as a rapid weakening of geopolitical hedging demand.
Even in the stock market, the impact of the war on leading artificial intelligence (AI) stocks was limited. Nvidia ($NVDA), once considered to be "single-handedly leading the Nasdaq," rose only 2.8%. Even accounting for the difference in market capitalization, some argue that Bitcoin (BTC) rose even more sharply.
However, if we expand the timeframe, the picture changes. Since the beginning of the year, Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen by 16%, while gold has risen by 18%. This suggests that the recent rebound is a relative strength that emerged in the "immediate post-war" period, and it's worth separating it from the historical context.
Bitcoin rose further despite Strait of Hormuz risks.
The strength of crude oil is intuitively understandable. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has raised concerns about supply disruptions, citing concerns about a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz is a key chokepoint through which approximately one-fifth of global crude oil flows, and even a blockade could destabilize oil prices.
Indeed, tanker traffic through the strait is estimated to have decreased by approximately 81% since the outbreak of war. This is due to an increasing number of insurers withdrawing war risk coverage and shipping companies avoiding the route out of fear of human casualties. Tanker freight rates through the strait have soared to record highs, and Brent crude oil prices surged 13% to $82 at one point before reversing somewhat. Barclays warned that if the blockade continues, oil prices could reach $100 per barrel, and OPEC+ announced an additional 206,000 barrels per day of production to mitigate the supply shock.
Nevertheless, in the early stages of this war, the asset with the highest return was not crude oil, but Bitcoin (BTC). Contrary to the stereotype that Bitcoin is weak in times of crisis, the market's attention is drawn to its faster recovery after absorbing the shock.
9,072 AI experiments… BTC selected as the "optimal currency asset."
Interestingly, a new macroeconomic driver that could stimulate demand for Bitcoin (BTC) has been identified in the AI field. One study, which conducted 9,072 experiments on 36 frontier AI models, found that when AI agents were asked to select the "optimal currency asset," they chose Bitcoin (BTC) 48% of the time.
Specifically, 79% of respondents chose Bitcoin (BTC) for its Store of Value (SV) purpose, and one of the commercial models, Antropic's Claude Opus 4.5, achieved a 91% selection rate. This suggests that as AI evaluates assets based on their "function," Bitcoin's (BTC) attributes, such as digital scarcity and transferability, may be highlighted.
Whether the war is short-lived or tensions in the Strait of Hormuz linger, this week's markets reaffirmed their asset hierarchy in times of crisis. Key early signals from this war include the fact that gold, oil, and the dollar aren't always the answer, and Bitcoin (BTC)'s rise as a "crisis-worthy asset."
🔎 Market Interpretation
- Since the US and Israel launched a full-scale attack on Iran, Bitcoin (BTC) has proven its 'relative strength' by recording the highest weekly return among major asset classes.
- The "war = gold and oil strength" formula is being challenged by short-term data, as it outperforms traditional war-benefit assets (crude oil and gold).
- Gold and silver, after a short-term surge immediately following the war, turned weaker due to a strong dollar and inflation concerns, while the S&P 500 remained flat.
💡 Strategy Points
- It is necessary to interpret the performance of 'immediately after the war (short-term)' and 'after the beginning of the year (mid- to long-term)' separately: BTC was strong in the short term, but the year-to-date trend is different, with BTC (-16%) vs. gold (+18%).
Strait of Hormuz risks are immediately reflected in oil price variables (supply disruptions, freight rates, insurance), but Bitcoin is emerging as a "risk-watching asset" due to its faster recovery after absorbing the shock.
In a strong dollar environment, traditional safe assets (precious metals) may not provide as much protection as expected. Therefore, do not limit your portfolio's hedges to a single asset, but review them on a case-by-case basis.
- In AI experiments (9,072 cases), BTC's weight was observed to be high due to the selection of 'currency/store of value,' confirming the possibility of increased demand based on attributes such as 'digital scarcity and ease of transfer,' in addition to geopolitical issues.
📘 Glossary
- Relative strength: A trend that rises more strongly or falls less strongly than the market or other assets.
Geopolitical hedging: Investment/demand aimed at reducing losses from geopolitical risks such as war and sanctions.
Strait of Hormuz (chokepoint): A bottleneck through which approximately one-fifth of the world's crude oil trade passes, and oil prices can fluctuate significantly simply by blocking or threatening to block it.
- WTI/Brent Crude Oil: A representative benchmark for oil prices, representing the US (West Texas Intermediate) and international standard crude oil.
- OPEC+: An alliance of OPEC and major oil producing countries that regulates supply by reducing or increasing production.
- Store of Value: A 'store of value' that maintains its value over time (e.g., gold, some including BTC)
💡 Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q.
Gold and crude oil prices usually rise when war breaks out, but why was Bitcoin stronger this time?
In the early stages of this war, Bitcoin rose approximately 12.1%, from $65,492 to $73,419, outperforming WTI (+10.4%) during the same period. Gold initially surged on "refugee demand," but subsequently weakened due to a strong dollar and rising inflation concerns. In other words, it was the post-war shift in dollar, inflation, and risk preferences, rather than the war itself, that dictated asset performance.
Q.
As risks in the Strait of Hormuz increase, isn't crude oil more advantageous?
The Strait of Hormuz is a bottleneck through which approximately one-fifth of global crude oil flows, so even fears of a blockade can easily cause oil prices to rise. Indeed, supply and logistics shocks, such as reduced tanker traffic, insurance cancellations, and sharp increases in freight rates, have driven up oil prices. However, the key point is that in this "early stage of the war," Bitcoin quickly absorbed the shock and recovered more quickly, outperforming oil in short-term returns.
Q.
What does the article mean when it says, "AI selects Bitcoin as a currency/store of value"?
In a study that conducted 9,072 experiments using 36 frontier AI models, AI agents selected Bitcoin 48% of the time when selecting the "optimal currency asset," and 79% of the time when selecting Bitcoin as a store of value. This suggests that Bitcoin's attributes, such as digital scarcity and ease of cross-border transfer, can be highlighted as strengths in a "function-based evaluation." However, since results can vary depending on the research design and assumptions, it's safer to interpret this as a reference signal rather than as the sole basis for investment decisions.
TP AI Precautions
This article was summarized using a TokenPost.ai-based language model. Key points in the text may be omitted or inaccurate.
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