Bitcoin just touched $72,495 – its highest level in four weeks – after surging more than 22% from Dip of $60,000 on February 6th. This recovery raises expectations of a return to the January closing level around $78,700.
However, behind the rally lies a market structure that is not yet truly robust.
43% of the supply is still operating at a loss.
on-chain data shows that approximately 43% of the circulating Bitcoin supply is currently trading below Capital price. This percentage is significantly higher than the 30% seen at the end of January, when the price was around $90,000.
This means a large portion of investors are still "waiting to break even." If prices continue to rebound, pressure to take profits at break- Capital may emerge, creating resistance to further gains.
The percentage of circulating supply that is profitable (Source: Glassnode)
Derivative still lean towards a defensive stance.
The options market shows that put options are currently priced about 10% higher than call options. In equilibrium, this spread typically fluctuates within ±6%.
At the same time, the basis rate for Futures Contract remains below 5% – a level that typically reflects neutral sentiment. This suggests that capital has not yet strongly returned to the buying side.
The current upward trend is more technical in nature than a reversal of confidence.
The silent pressure from the Miners.
One variable that receives less attention is the Bitcoin mining industry. The electricity demand from the AI sector is driving up operating costs, while the Bitcoin network's performance hasn't improved proportionally.
The Hashprice index – the expected return per terahash/second – has fallen to around $30, significantly lower than the $39 it held three months ago. Narrowing profit margins are forcing many listed mining companies to diversify into high-performance AI computing, while also liquidating some of their BTC holdings.
If this group shifts from accumulating to net selling, short-term supply could increase.
$76,000 – a sensitive area for the "big players"
A notable psychological milestone is $76,000 – the Medium cost of Capital for Strategy, a company that holds over 720,000 BTC on its balance sheet.
When the price falls below this level, the market questions the sustainability of the "all-in Bitcoin" model. Conversely, if it surpasses the $76,000 mark, Strategy could issue more shares with lower dilution – creating greater financial leeway.
Strategy's Bitcoin accumulation campaigns (Source: Strategy)
Therefore, the $76,000 level is not just a technical resistance level, but also a point of intersection between corporate financial structure and market sentiment.
Conclude
Bitcoin has recovered significantly from Dip, but the supply-demand structure still faces many headwinds: the supply is incurring high losses, the Derivative market is cautious, and there is potential pressure from the mining group.
The current upward momentum presents opportunities, but it cannot yet be XEM a confirmation of a sustainable uptrend. The $72,000 and especially $76,000 levels will be important testing grounds in the coming period.
