Many people only focus on the rise and fall, but if you connect the timeline with the macro environment, the logic becomes very clear.
Let's review this round of market activity:
① January-March 2025: Bull market continues its upward momentum to reach its peak
BTC started the year around 95,000 to 98,000, and with Trump's inauguration and a surge in ETF inflows, it briefly reached 109,000. However, despite high trading volume at this level, it failed to rise further, and the moving averages began to flatten out. This was actually the first distribution window for institutions, and the top of the bull market had already been foreshadowed.
② May-October 2025: A second surge completed the major top, breaking through 110,000 in May, and rising above 120,000 in July and August, finally settling at the historical high of $126,199 in October. At that time, the expectation of interest rate cuts, ETF funds, and retail investors' FOMO were all at their peak, but the trading volume decreased with each new high, a typical pattern of new highs with decreasing volume and a Double Top structure. The major players basically completed their distribution at 126,000.
③ October-December 2025: The main downward wave begins, with the price falling from 126,000 to around 87,000, a pullback of over 30%. The reasons are simple: the Federal Reserve's attitude turns hawkish, geopolitical conflicts escalate, and ETFs begin to see outflows. A series of large bearish candlesticks on the weekly chart, a death cross of moving averages, and a drop below the year's opening price—the bull-bear transition is officially established.
④ January 2026 – Present: Weak rebound phase. BTC rebounded from 60,000 to just over 72,000, a rebound of less than 20%, and trading volume was very weak. Meanwhile:
Escalation of tensions in the Middle East
Oil prices fluctuated at high levels
Dollar surges, gold hits new highs
BTC has also completely returned to its essence: it is not a safe-haven asset, but a highly volatile risky asset.
In summary: 2025: 95,000 → 126,000, the bull market will end with interest rate cuts and ETFs. 2026: 126,000 → 72,000, macro tightening and the black swan event of war will plunge the market directly into a bear market.
The historical pattern is actually quite simple: the second year after a halving often marks the main downward wave of a bear market.
Possible entry points for BTC: First target: 65,000
Second target: 58,000-60,000
The third target: 48,000-52,000 (the standard 50% bear market retracement zone). Does that sound pessimistic? Actually, no. The market has been operating according to its own logic; it's just that many people haven't yet shaken off the bullish sentiment.
So how can ordinary people break free from this predicament? There's an old saying: The Great Way is fifty, the Heavenly Way is forty-nine, and man escapes to one.
It's difficult to make money in the spot market during a bear market; the real "path" is actually trading itself.
The opportunity will be gone in the blink of an eye, everyone gather quickly!
Don't let hesitation delay the best opportunity to make money, and don't get burned by worthless cryptocurrencies. Follow Sister Miao and get through it safely!
Contact me via WeChat: Mixm5688 or QQ: 2234099968
