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ToggleWill oil prices continue to rise? Binance Research offers a clear assessment: the ceiling has been reached. Binance Research recently released a quick commentary on the oil market on its X platform, pointing out that Brent crude's price of $110 per barrel has fully reflected the risk premium from the Strait of Hormuz's closure for over a month. Furthermore, multiple buffer mechanisms, including the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), International Energy Agency (IEA) member reserves, alternative pipeline capacity, and Iranian export alternatives, have not yet been fully activated, meaning that the marginal momentum for further price increases is weakening.
For the crypto market, the signals from this report are also worth noting: if oil prices remain range-bound, concerns about stagflation that have recently been suppressing risk assets are expected to ease, and the risk-off selling pressure on crypto assets such as Bitcoin may have bottomed out.
The three major buffer mechanisms have not yet been activated, limiting the upside potential for oil prices.
Binance Research listed three buffer factors in its quick commentary that are not yet fully reflected in current oil prices.
First, there are strategic reserves: the US SPR currently holds approximately 700 million barrels of crude oil, and the White House has stated that it will consider using them if necessary; IEA member countries collectively control approximately 4 billion barrels of reserves, and the coordinated release mechanism has not yet been activated, forming an important buffer to curb further surges in oil prices.
Secondly, there is the issue of bypass capacity: Saudi Arabia’s east-west oil pipeline and the UAE’s Habshan-Fujairah pipeline can theoretically provide a combined transport capacity of 3.6 million barrels per day, but the actual usage is currently only about 900,000 barrels per day, limited by temporary port congestion and marine fuel shortages rather than permanent damage—such bottlenecks can usually be alleviated within a few weeks.
Thirdly, there are alternative routes for Iranian exports: It is estimated that Iran is currently resuming exports through regional transshipment points and land corridors, with approximately 1.5 to 2 million barrels of crude oil returning to the market daily through these alternative channels. This supply has not yet been fully reflected in the current oil price structure.
The shift in market analysis frameworks is putting downward pressure on risk premiums.
Binance Research points out that the focus of oil market analysis is shifting from assessing the "scale of supply disruptions" to assessing the "duration of disruptions." This framework shift itself puts downward pressure on risk premiums, especially given signs of easing in physical supply constraints. Binance Research believes that oil prices may enter a consolidation phase between $100 and $110 in the near term, which is the upper limit of effective support. Once there is substantial diplomatic progress or confirmation of the opening of alternative oil transportation routes, oil prices are expected to quickly repric back to the $80 to $90 range.
Crypto Market Impact: The Worst Macroeconomic Scenario May Be Over
For cryptocurrency investors, Binance Research's findings point to a key turning point: the worst-case macroeconomic scenario suppressing the crypto market is based on the assumption of continued oil price increases. With oil prices around $110 per barrel, easing geopolitical tensions, and no policy tools (reserve releases) yet to be deployed, the upward trend in oil prices appears to have been contained.
Binance Research believes that the selling pressure stemming from risk-averse behavior and risk-relief sentiment may have bottomed out, which is conducive to the stabilization of the crypto market and even a rebound. However, it is worth noting that this judgment is conditional: if the situation escalates significantly, the price ceiling of $100 to $110 will need to be retested.
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